🚨 Trade Update: BW — Both Price Targets Hit ✅✅
We recommended Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: BW) on March 5, 2026, at a buy level of $12.00, with price targets of $18.00 (PT1) and $22.00 (PT2) and a stop-loss at $8.80 on a closing basis.
Both targets have been achieved — PT2 was reached on May 15, 2026, delivering gains of approximately 50% and 83% from the entry level within about ten weeks. The stock has since given back those gains, now trading around $11.70 — roughly back in line with our original entry level.
🚨 Trade Update: FSLY — Both Price Targets Hit ✅✅
We recommended Fastly, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLY) on February 13, 2026, at a buy level of $15.35, with price targets of $22.00 (PT1) and $26.00 (PT2) and a stop-loss at $11.90 on a closing basis.
Both targets have been achieved — PT2 was reached on March 18, 2026, delivering gains of approximately 43% and 69% from the entry level in just over a month. The stock has since pulled back, now trading around $19.59 — still up roughly 28% from our original entry level.
Bottom line: Both BW and FSLY hit their full price targets — BW delivered as much as ~83% upside before round-tripping back near entry, while FSLY ran as high as ~69% and remains up ~28% from entry after cooling off. And now, on to today’s featured setup…
On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) just broke out of a multi-month falling wedge — closing up +4.81% on the session — and looks headed even higher.
As we’ll get to just ahead, the combination of record-breaking quarterly sales with expanding profit margins, a fast-growing premium brand pushing aggressively into new markets and product lines, and a fresh technical breakout makes ONON one of the more interesting setups on the board. Here’s what’s going on…
The Themes Behind the Move
On Holding is a premium Swiss sportswear brand built around performance running — best known for its distinctive CloudTec cushioning — that has expanded into apparel, tennis, training, outdoor, and lifestyle categories. It sells through both wholesale partners and, increasingly, its own direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels: owned retail stores and e-commerce.
In plain English, when a runner or a style-conscious active shopper is choosing a premium pair of shoes or athletic apparel, On is increasingly one of the first brands they reach for — and the company keeps more of each sale by steering buyers toward its own stores and website rather than discount-heavy third-party retailers. Its growth hinges on how fast it can scale DTC, expand internationally (especially across Asia), and keep launching high-margin premium products.
ONON’s latest move reflects a powerful confluence of developments — commercial, operational, and product-driven — that have come together in rapid succession to reframe the company’s near-term growth trajectory.
| Theme / Catalyst | What Happened | Why Traders Care |
|---|---|---|
| Record Q1 2026 + raised guidance | On reported record Q1 2026 results, crossing CHF 800 million (~$1.06 billion) in quarterly net sales for the first time — a +26.4% YoY jump on a constant-currency basis. Management then raised full-year gross margin guidance to at least 64.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin to 19.5%–20.0%. | In a retail environment defined by promotional discounting, On is showing elite pricing power and full-price discipline. Gross margins above 64% prove the premium positioning is intact — and a beat paired with raised guidance signals growth is accelerating, not slowing. |
| DTC acceleration + global expansion | On is aggressively expanding its global footprint, opening flagship stores across Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Europe. APAC net sales surged as the brand crossed $1 billion in quarterly sales — APAC now accounts for over 20% of global revenue — while apparel sales jumped 57.5%. New flagship hubs are slated for Stockholm, São Paulo, and Sydney. | Driving buyers to its own channels shields On from promotional third-party retail and captures pure product margins. The APAC surge proves it’s not just a Western trend, and booming apparel signals the shift from niche running-shoe maker to full-scale global athletic lifestyle brand. |
| Premium product innovation | In late June 2026, On unveiled its next-generation Cloudboom Strike 2 marathon racing shoe and an ultra-light LightSpray version (~158g) built on new CloudTec Sphere geometry. LightSpray robotic-spray manufacturing is scaling fast via a new South Korea factory (roughly 30x capacity). The brand is also extending its cultural reach through collaborations with Zendaya and Loewe. | Innovation is On’s moat in a crowded running market. LightSpray represents a potential manufacturing revolution — efficiency, sustainability, and performance in one — while high-profile collaborations keep the brand culturally relevant with younger consumers and feed a rich product pipeline. |
| Sector tailwind | Even amid macro noise and choppy consumer discretionary spending, premium health-and-wellness lifestyle brands continue to outperform general retail. Middle-to-upper-income shoppers are prioritizing functional, premium athletic footwear — a structural tailwind for premium operators like On and Deckers (Hoka) over legacy mass-market players. | Demand for premium athleisure is rising largely regardless of broader market conditions. On’s combination of pricing power, DTC control, and innovation edge positions it as a share-gainer rather than a share-defender in a competitive category. |
| Fundamentals & balance sheet | Revenue cleared $1.04 billion, beating estimates, on record Q1 net sales of CHF 831.9M (+14.5% YoY / +26.4% constant currency) with strong beats on revenue and adjusted profitability. Management reiterated its full-year outlook of at least 23% constant-currency sales growth (~CHF 3.51B+ at spot rates), alongside gross margin of at least 64.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5%–20.0%. The balance sheet is debt-light. | Accelerating top-line growth, expanding margins, and a clean, debt-light balance sheet give On the financial flexibility to fund its store rollout and product pipeline internally — without leaning on dilution or leverage to grow. |
| Analyst coverage & conviction | Across the 22 analysts issuing twelve-month price targets, the average sits at $53.79 — roughly 40% above the recent price near $38.44 — with a high target of $85.00. JPMorgan reinstated coverage on July 2, 2026 at Overweight with a $51 target, Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight (~$50), and Stifel raised its target on market-share gains. The founders recently stepped back in as co-CEOs — a clear signal of leadership conviction as the brand scales. | The stock trades well below the average target, and a cluster of fresh raises in the $45–$60+ range points to a coverage universe still catching up to the fundamentals. Founders returning to the helm adds skin-in-the-game conviction at a pivotal growth moment. |
| Upcoming triggers | Next earnings are expected around August 11, 2026 (some calendars list August 18), with consensus modeling EPS of $0.41 on revenue of ~$1.09 billion. The Cloud X Tempo Pro hybrid-fitness shoe launches around August 2026, with ongoing LightSpray drops and SS27 previews. On the leadership front, the company is splitting its commercial role into two positions this fall as longtime CCO Britt Olsen departs. | A staggered set of catalysts — earnings, product launches, and leadership additions — each capable of independently moving the stock through the back half of 2026. August earnings in particular is the near-term confirmation traders will watch most closely. |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
Put it all together, and ONON is looking less like an expensive growth story leaning on momentum and more like a premium consumer brand executing on every front — record sales, expanding margins, a debt-light balance sheet, a deep product pipeline, and an international runway that’s still early.
The story is getting stronger, but the chart is what could determine whether this move has more room to run in the near term. Here are the bullish technical signals traders should be watching now.
Bullish Technical Signals
#1 Falling Wedge Pattern Breakout: On the daily chart, ONON has spent the past several weeks compressing inside a falling wedge (marked in purple) — a pattern defined by converging downward-sloping trendlines and diminishing selling intensity. Price has now broken decisively above the upper boundary, confirming the pattern. Falling wedge breakouts are read as bullish because they mark the exhaustion of the prior downtrend: sellers have run out of supply at progressively higher lows, and buyers are stepping in with conviction. The pattern typically resolves as a final shakeout before a directional advance.
ONON – Daily Chart
#2 Price above MA: ONON is trading above its 50-day SMA (~$37.13), a shift that flips the short-term bias bullish on the daily timeframe. Reclaiming this moving average matters because it’s the level most swing traders and trend-followers benchmark against — holding above it signals that near-term demand is absorbing supply. It also establishes the 50-day as dynamic support, giving buyers a defined level to defend on any pullback and a clean invalidation point if lost.
#3 MACD Above Signal Line: On the daily chart, the MACD line (blue) has crossed above the signal line (orange), triggering a bullish crossover. Mechanically, this means the 12-period EMA is pulling away from the 26-period EMA — short-term momentum is accelerating faster than the longer-term trend. Crossovers of this type often precede sustained upside moves, particularly when they occur alongside a price structure breakout, as is the case here. The alignment of momentum and price action strengthens the signal.
#4 Bullish Stoch: The Stochastic %K line has crossed above %D on the daily chart, signaling that buying momentum is taking over from selling pressure. What makes this reading more meaningful is where the cross is occurring — coming off the lower band and turning up cleanly, rather than in overbought territory. This positioning gives the move room to run before momentum becomes stretched.
#5 Support Reclaim on the Weekly Chart & 200-Week SMA Hold: The weekly chart shows ONON recovering off a prior resistance-turned-support zone (pink dotted line around $35.62) — a level that previously capped price and is now acting as a floor. This role reversal is a classic bullish structural signal. Price is also holding above the 200-week SMA (~$37.54), which reflects the long-term trend. As long as both levels hold on a weekly closing basis, the higher-timeframe bull structure remains intact.
ONON – Weekly Chart
#6 Bullish ADX: The +DI is trading above the –DI, confirming that buyers currently control trend direction. More importantly, the ADX line is rising from below the –DI and pushing up toward the +DI — a setup that often precedes trend acceleration. A low-but-rising ADX combined with a positive DI cross is one of the higher-quality entry configurations this indicator produces: it captures a trend in its early phase, before it becomes obvious on price alone.
#7 Bullish RSI: Weekly RSI is approaching the 50 midline from below and turning higher. The 50 level is the practical boundary between bearish and bullish momentum regimes — a cross above it, especially one still trending upward rather than flattening, indicates that buyers are taking the momentum baton from sellers on the higher timeframe. Momentum is still building rather than peaking, which leaves room for further upside before overbought conditions come into play.
Risks to Consider
Even strong setups can fail, especially in a premium, high-multiple consumer name like On Holding. A few things could knock the stock off course:
- A breakdown back below the falling wedge on heavy volume would invalidate the breakout thesis and reopen the prior downtrend
- Negative company-specific news or broader market weakness — any rotation out of consumer discretionary or premium retail would pressure the whole group
- Valuation premium — ONON trades at a steep multiple (~39–42x trailing P/E; forward lower but still elevated), leaving limited margin of safety if volume growth slows even slightly
- Competition and execution — legacy giants like Nike and Adidas are pushing back into wholesale while Deckers (Hoka) keeps executing; over-expansion across stores, apparel, and DTC adds inventory and discounting risk if demand softens
- Macro and tariff exposure — a global footprint leaves On sensitive to Vietnam sourcing tariffs and ocean-freight volatility; these are embedded in guidance but could pressure margins if they escalate
- Leadership transitions — the departing CCO and the split of the commercial role into two positions this fall add execution watchpoints, even if framed as continuity
- Insider activity — occasional small sells by executives and board members are normal but worth monitoring for any change in tone
- Volatility — the stock has pulled back sharply from its $64.05 all-time high and can move faster than peers on macro jitters, so position sizing matters
The Bottom Line
ONON is breaking out of a multi-month falling wedge on the daily chart while reclaiming a key resistance-turned-support level and holding above its 200-week SMA on the weekly — a dual-timeframe technical setup that historically signals the start of a sustained move higher.
The fundamental story underneath the chart is just as strong: record Q1 sales above $1 billion with a 26.4% constant-currency jump, gross margin guidance raised to at least 64.5%, and a debt-light balance sheet funding a deep 2026–2027 product pipeline.
Combine that with multiple catalysts staggered through the timeline — August earnings, the Cloud X Tempo Pro launch, ongoing LightSpray drops, and high-profile Zendaya and Loewe collaborations — and ONON looks like one of the more compelling risk-reward setups on the board right now.
If this is a trade you want to get in on, here’s how we’d play it. Below you’ll find our exact entry level, both price targets that imply 28%–49% potential upside, and the stop-loss we’re using to manage the downside.
Recommended Trade Setup
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Buy Level | Above approximately $39.00 |
| Price Target 1 | $50.00 — Potential upside: 28% |
| Price Target 2 | $58.00 — Potential upside: 49% |
| Timeframe | Next 3–6 months |
| Stop-Loss | $33.00 on a closing basis |
| Trade Invalidation | Void if price hits stop-loss before entry triggers |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
For a risk of approximately $6.00 per share, the target rewards are about $11.00 and $19.00 per share. That makes this roughly a 1:2 and 1:3 risk-reward trade. In other words, the setup offers nearly 2x to 3x more potential upside than downside.
Note on Trade Invalidation: This recommendation stays active as long as the technical structure holds. If ONON drops to or below the $33.00 stop-loss before the $39.00 entry triggers, the trade is automatically void — the support underpinning the thesis would have broken, and the risk-reward setup would no longer justify entry.
Happy Trading!
Tara and Greg
🥈 Almost Made the Cut
Today’s featured trade, On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON), was our top pick of several breakout candidates we evaluated. The following two stocks were strong candidates that made it to the final round — they came up just short of the top spot, but remain on our watchlist and could be featured soon:
Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) — Meta keeps strengthening its AI leadership through new frontier models, its proprietary Iris AI chips, and plans to monetize spare compute via an emerging “Meta Compute” platform. Paired with a resilient advertising business and a key earnings report later this month, it remains one of the market’s strongest long-term AI beneficiaries — though after its sharp recent rally and elevated implied volatility, a more attractive entry may emerge after some consolidation.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) — Cisco continues to benefit from the AI infrastructure buildout as enterprises and hyperscalers upgrade networking, security, and data-center gear. Record quarterly revenue, raised full-year guidance, fast-growing AI-related orders, and continued Splunk integration reinforce its position as a key enterprise-AI beneficiary — but its recent re-rating suggests a more measured upside profile than our top selection.
