🚨 Trade Updates: Two Winners Hit PT2 (and One Stopped Out)
Both price targets have been hit on two recent recommendations — and one trade was stopped out cleanly. Here’s a quick rundown:
MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) — We recommended MARA on April 6, 2026, at a buy level of $9.10, with price targets of $12.50 (PT1) and $15.00 (PT2). Both targets have been achieved — the stock rallied through PT2 and recently traded around $14.08, delivering peak gains of approximately 37% (PT1) and 65% (PT2). Conservative traders may want to book profits here; those riding momentum can trail with a stop at $12.50, locking in a minimum ~37% gain.
CVS Health Corp. (NYSE: CVS) — We recommended CVS on April 30, 2026, at a buy level of $84.50, with price targets of $93.00 (PT1) and $99.00 (PT2). Both targets have been hit — CVS is now trading around $101.96, up roughly 21% from entry. For those still holding, use $99.00 as a trailing stop-loss. Our next targets for CVS are $108.00 and $115.00 over the next 3 months.
📋 Trade Closed: PLTR — Stop-Loss Triggered. Our Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) recommendation from June 1, 2026 has been stopped out. The stock triggered our $159.10 entry but failed to hold the breakout, declining through the $143.00 stop-loss within a week — a controlled loss of approximately 10%. The stop did its job.
Bottom line: Two winners booked, one disciplined exit, and now on to today’s featured setup…
We previously recommended Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) on April 14, 2026 — that trade ran cleanly through our price targets, and the stock has since broken out of a multi-week bull flag and looks headed even higher.
As we’ll get to just ahead, the combination of a rare Bank of America “double upgrade” with a $135 price target, blue-chip foundry validation from Apple, Google, Foxconn, and Hitachi, and a fresh technical breakout makes INTC one of the more interesting setups on the board. Here’s what’s going on…
The Themes Behind the Move
Intel is a 57-year-old semiconductor giant that designs, manufactures, and sells computing chips for personal computers, data centers, and AI infrastructure — and through its rapidly expanding Intel Foundry business, increasingly manufactures custom silicon for other chip designers as well.
In plain English, when a hyperscaler like Google needs to manufacture millions of custom AI accelerators, when Apple wants a U.S.-based foundry partner for advanced silicon, or when an enterprise needs CPUs capable of running AI inference workloads at scale, Intel is increasingly one of the very few firms on the planet that can deliver. Its business now hinges on the ramp of its 18A manufacturing node, the trajectory of foundry customer wins under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and continued data center and AI demand for its Xeon processor lineup.
INTC’s latest move reflects a powerful confluence of developments — strategic, commercial, and operational — that have come together in rapid succession to fundamentally reframe the company’s near-term growth trajectory.
| Theme / Catalyst | What Happened | Why Traders Care |
|---|---|---|
| Rare BofA “double upgrade” | Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya double-upgraded Intel from Underperform (Sell) straight to Buy, lifting the price target from $96 to $135. BofA cited Intel’s positioning in the AI inference market, growing foundry interest, and the surprisingly low institutional ownership of just ~16% of S&P 500 funds. | Double upgrades from major banks are rare — and they tend to force institutional reallocation. With only ~16% of S&P 500 funds holding INTC, there’s a large pool of sidelined institutional money that still needs to buy in. |
| Blue-chip foundry & AI partnerships | In rapid succession: a preliminary agreement for Intel Foundry to manufacture chips for Apple, an order from Google/Alphabet for 3+ million TPUs for 2028 delivery, a Computex-timed Foxconn partnership on rack-scale AI systems, and a broad Hitachi collaboration on physical AI across manufacturing, energy, and mobility. | Securing Apple, Google, Foxconn, and Hitachi inside a few weeks is the ultimate validation for Intel’s 18A node and packaging tech. It transforms the foundry from a long-promised turnaround story into a credible TSMC alternative with real, contracted volume. |
| Record Q1 earnings + accelerating DC/AI | Intel’s Q1 2026 report marked its sixth consecutive quarter beating guidance. Revenue of $13.6 billion (+7% YoY) beat the $12.36B estimate, Data Center & AI grew +22% YoY to $5.1 billion, Intel Foundry hit $5.4 billion (+16% YoY), and non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 41.0%. Q2 guidance of $13.8–$14.8 billion came in well above the $13.03B consensus, with management noting demand currently exceeds shipping capacity. | A 22% jump in Data Center & AI revenue tells you the AI-inference thesis is showing up in the financials, not just the slides. And when management raises Q2 guidance by ~$1B above consensus while citing supply constraints, that’s the kind of operational signal that supports continued multiple expansion. |
| Sector tailwinds | The AI workload mix is shifting from training (Nvidia-dominated) toward inference, agentic AI, and edge computing — workloads that lean heavily on CPUs and advanced packaging. At the same time, TSMC capacity constraints have re-framed Intel as the U.S.-based alternative for advanced foundry capacity, with U.S. onshoring policy reinforcing the structural backdrop. | Demand for inference-grade silicon and U.S.-domiciled foundry capacity is structurally rising — and Intel is one of the few names with both CPU leadership and domestic fabs at advanced nodes. That’s a rare combination that fits multiple secular themes at once. |
| Analyst coverage | Among the 48 analysts covering INTC, the average 12-month price target sits at $87.31, with a high of $150.00 and a low of $30.00. The mean target hasn’t caught up to the recent rally, but the direction of recent moves is unambiguous: BofA’s double-upgrade to Buy with a $135 PT, Melius Research raising its target from $100 to $150, and Morningstar lifting its Fair Value on improved server CPU optimism. | When the high target sits well above current levels and a string of post-rally upgrades is pulling the mean higher, that’s Wall Street racing to catch up to the new fundamentals — not fading them. The gap between mean and high also leaves room for continued upward revisions as more analysts re-rate. |
| Market conviction signal | Despite the massive rally, only ~16% of S&P 500 funds currently hold INTC — a striking underweight given the stock’s market-cap profile. The bull-flag breakout on the daily chart came on volume of ~151 million shares in the most recent session, well above average, and the stock cleared both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs months ago and continues to ride above them. | When institutional ownership is this light heading into a confirmed breakout, every fund that decides it needs exposure becomes a forced buyer. That’s the kind of structural setup that can extend momentum well past what valuation alone would justify. |
| Upcoming triggers | Traders are watching Q2 2026 earnings expected in late July (historically July 23–25, with focus on foundry break-even timing), continued ramp of the Xeon 6 processor (recently selected as host CPU for Nvidia’s DGX Rubin systems), the launch of Panther Lake AI PC chips, expanded Cadence collaboration on 14A, and additional foundry customer announcements throughout H2 2026. | A staggered set of high-conviction catalysts — earnings, product launches, foundry wins, and process-node milestones — each capable of independently moving the stock through year-end. |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
Put it all together, and INTC is looking less like a struggling legacy chipmaker and more like a credibly executing AI-inference and foundry powerhouse — with blue-chip customer validation, record Data Center revenue growth, and a Wall Street consensus that is still racing to catch up to the new fundamentals.
The story is getting stronger by the week, but the chart is what could determine whether this move has more room to run in the near term. Here are the bullish technical signals traders should be watching now.
Bullish Technical Signals
#1 Flag Pattern Breakout: After a sharp rally from mid-March through late April, INTC entered a period of sideways consolidation within a narrowing channel — a textbook bull flag, outlined in purple on the daily chart. The stock has now broken above the upper boundary of that flag. Flags are continuation patterns: they represent a pause within a trend, not a reversal, and breakouts from them tend to carry price in the direction of the prior move. The measured move from this flag projects a target well above current levels, aligning with the trade setup below.
INTC – Daily Chart
#2 Price above MAs: INTC is trading at $125.57, well above both its 50-day SMA ($95.69) and 200-day SMA ($53.50), placing it firmly in bullish territory on the daily timeframe. More importantly, the 50-day MA sits above the 200-day — a golden cross alignment that confirms the longer-term trend has shifted decisively upward. The wide spread between the two averages reflects the strength and velocity of the recent rally, while both lines now act as layered dynamic support on any pullback, giving buyers clearly defined levels to lean on.
#3 Bullish ADX: The ADX reading confirms that this isn’t just price movement — it’s a trending move with conviction. The +DI line sits above the –DI line, indicating buyers are controlling direction. Meanwhile, the ADX line itself is climbing from below the –DI toward the +DI, which signals that trend strength is building, not fading. This configuration — directional dominance plus rising ADX — is characteristic of the early-to-mid stage of a sustained trend, exactly where you want to be positioned.
#4 Bullish Stoch: On the daily chart, the %K line has crossed above the %D line while emerging from oversold territory — a high-conviction combination. A crossover alone can be noise, but when it fires from an oversold base, it indicates that selling pressure has been exhausted and buyers are re-entering with intent. The fact that this is happening within the context of a flag breakout and rising ADX adds significant weight; multiple independent signals aligning at the same time sharply increases the probability of follow-through.
#5 Holding Above Resistance-Turned-Support: On the weekly chart, INTC has reclaimed a level (marked by the pink dotted line near ~$108) that previously acted as resistance. That level has now flipped to support — a classic polarity shift that gives the current advance a structural floor. The stock is also trading above both its 50-week SMA ($48.96) and 200-week SMA ($34.79), confirming that the bulls are in control across the longer timeframe. As long as this support zone holds, the path of least resistance remains higher.
INTC – Weekly Chart
#6 Bullish MACD: The weekly MACD line (light blue) is riding above the signal line (orange) and both are trending higher — a sustained bullish crossover on the weekly timeframe. This tells us that short-term momentum is outpacing longer-term momentum on a macro scale, not just a daily blip. Weekly MACD crossovers tend to be slower to form and more durable once established, giving this signal greater reliability than its daily counterpart.
#7 Positive OBV: The weekly OBV line is trending higher, confirming that accumulation is behind this rally. OBV rises when volume on up-weeks outpaces volume on down-weeks, meaning institutional money is flowing in rather than distributing. Price rallies backed by rising OBV have a stronger foundation than those driven by thin volume — this is the market voting with real capital, not just sentiment.
Risks to Consider
Even strong setups can fail, especially in a high-momentum, story-driven name like Intel. A few things could knock the stock off course:
- A breakdown back below the bull flag breakout level on heavy volume
- Negative company-specific news or broader market weakness — semiconductors are high-beta and the group can roll over quickly when sentiment shifts
- Stretched valuation after a powerful rally — INTC is no longer a value name, and many of the 48 analysts covering the stock still carry price targets below current levels, leaving room for downgrades or profit-taking
- Foundry execution risk on Intel 18A — early in ramp, with potential margin dilution and yield/cost pressure; TSMC still dominates advanced-node manufacturing globally
- Continued GAAP unprofitability — Q1 2026 posted a GAAP loss of $0.73 per share driven by $4.07 billion in restructuring and a Mobileye impairment, and trailing free cash flow remains negative
- PC end-market softness — PC TAM is expected to be down low double-digits in H2 2026, partially offsetting server/AI strength
- Insider activity — notable executive selling has been reported at higher prices, which can dampen near-term sentiment even when tied to scheduled plans
- Direct competition from AMD, Nvidia, and other AI-silicon players, plus the risk that any Q2 earnings miss on July 23–25 could re-introduce post-earnings selling pressure
The Bottom Line
INTC is breaking out of a multi-week bull flag on the daily chart while holding cleanly above a resistance-turned-support level on the weekly — a dual-timeframe technical setup that historically signals the start of a sustained move higher.
The fundamental story underneath the chart is just as strong: a rare Bank of America “double upgrade” with a $135 price target, blue-chip foundry validation from Apple, Google, Foxconn, and Hitachi, and a sixth consecutive quarterly earnings beat with Data Center & AI revenue up 22% YoY.
Combine that with multiple commercial and operational catalysts staggered through year-end — Q2 earnings, the Xeon 6 ramp, Panther Lake launch, and continued foundry customer announcements — and INTC looks like one of the more compelling risk-reward setups on the board right now.
If this is a trade you want to get in on, here’s how we’d play it. Below you’ll find our exact entry level, both price targets that imply 15%–23% potential upside, and the stop-loss we’re using to manage the downside.
Recommended Trade Setup
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Buy Level | Above approximately $125.60 |
| Price Target 1 | $145.00 — Potential upside: 15% |
| Price Target 2 | $155.00 — Potential upside: 23% |
| Timeframe | Next 3–6 months |
| Stop-Loss | $116.00 on a closing basis |
| Trade Invalidation | Void if price hits stop-loss before entry triggers |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
For a risk of approximately $9.60 per share, the target rewards are about $19.40 and $29.40 per share. That makes this roughly a 1:2 and 1:3 risk-reward trade. In other words, the setup offers nearly 2x to 3x more potential upside than downside.
Note on Trade Invalidation: This recommendation stays active as long as the technical structure holds. If INTC drops to or below the $116.00 stop-loss before the $125.60 entry triggers, the trade is automatically void — the support underpinning the thesis would have broken, and the risk-reward setup would no longer justify entry.
Happy Trading!
Tara and Greg