🚨 Trade Update: BW – Both Price Targets Hit ✅
We recommended Babcock & Wilcox (NYSE: BW) on March 5, 2026, with a buy level of $12.00 and price targets of $18.00 (PT1) and $22.00 (PT2). The stock has since rallied to touch PT2 — crossing $22.00 intraday before closing at $21.85 Friday — delivering gains of approximately 50% and 83% from the entry level.
With both targets now achieved, traders with a conservative risk appetite may consider booking profits at current levels. Those looking to ride the remaining momentum can continue holding with a trailing stop at $18.00 (PT1), which locks in a minimum ~50% gain while leaving room for further upside. Our next price targets for BW are $24.00 and $26.00 over the next 3 months.
Bottom line: Both targets hit — book profits or trail your stop to $18.00 and let the rest run.
Figma, Inc. (NYSE: FIG) just broke out of a multi-month falling wedge on its heaviest volume since its post-IPO highs and looks headed even higher.
As we’ll get to just ahead, the combination of a record Q1 earnings beat and raised full-year guidance, accelerating AI monetization with a 139% net dollar retention rate, and a fresh technical breakout makes FIG one of the more interesting setups on the board. Here’s what’s going on…
The Themes Behind the Move
Figma is a collaborative, browser-based design platform sold on subscription to product, design, and engineering teams. Its product family spans Figma Design (the flagship design tool), Dev Mode (which translates designs into code), FigJam (online whiteboarding), Figma Slides, Figma Draw, Figma Sites, plus its newer AI-powered Figma Make and Figma Weave tools — and most recently the acquired Payload CMS headless content platform.
In plain English, when a company wants its product, design, marketing, and engineering teams to work on the same screen at the same time — and increasingly, to plug AI agents into that workflow — Figma is the platform most of them reach for. Its business hinges on enterprise seat expansion, the monetization of its new AI features, and whether design teams continue to anchor themselves on Figma rather than defect to AI-native upstarts.
FIG’s latest move reflects a powerful confluence of developments — commercial, financial, and strategic — that have come together in rapid succession to fundamentally reframe the bear case that crushed the stock through the early part of the year.
| Theme / Catalyst | What Happened | Why Traders Care |
|---|---|---|
| Record Q1 beat + raised guidance | On May 14, 2026, Figma reported Q1 2026 revenue of $333.4 million (+46% YoY, above the $316M consensus) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.10 (vs. $0.06 estimate), while raising full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.422B–$1.428B. Top-line growth re-accelerated from 38% in Q3 and 40% in Q4 to 46% in Q1. | This was Figma’s “prove it” moment — top-line growth is accelerating, not decelerating, and management is raising guidance into a market that had priced in the opposite. |
| AI monetization + 139% NDR | Q1 net dollar retention hit 139% — its highest level in over two years — while customers spending $100K+ annually grew 48% YoY. Figma also shipped major AI updates: enhanced Model Context Protocol for agents (5x QoQ weekly active users in Design), expanded Code-to-Canvas integrating Claude Code, Cursor, and VS Code, and continued improvements to Figma Make and Weave — all building on the February 2026 Anthropic partnership. | A 139% NDR dismantles the bear thesis in a single number — enterprise customers aren’t leaving; they’re expanding seats and paying for premium AI add-ons. AI is acting as an upsell engine, not an existential threat. |
| Sector tailwinds | Earlier in 2026, the SaaS sector was rocked by fears that generative AI would commoditize software — sending names like Figma tumbling from their post-IPO highs. Market sentiment is now pivoting back, with the AI-native productivity boom favoring platforms that successfully embed AI agents directly into existing enterprise workflows. | The “SaaSpocalypse” trade is unwinding, and the names best positioned to monetize AI inside their platforms — rather than be displaced by it — are leading the rebound. FIG is one of the cleanest examples of that pivot. |
| Strengthened balance sheet | FIG ended Q1 2026 with roughly $1.6 billion in cash, generated $88.6 million in free cash flow (a 27% FCF margin), and posted a 16% non-GAAP operating margin on ~80–85% gross margins. GAAP net loss was $142M, but operating leverage is improving with revenue scale. | Ample runway to invest in AI products and absorb rising compute costs without raising capital. Positive non-GAAP profitability and a 27% FCF margin while growing 46% YoY is a rare combination in software today. |
| Analyst coverage | Among the 15 analysts covering FIG, the average 12-month price target sits at $38.63, with a high of $69.00 and a low of $25.00 — implying roughly 69% upside from recent levels. Wells Fargo maintained Buy, while post-earnings PT trims from Goldman (to $30), Morgan Stanley (to $38), Piper Sandler ($30), RBC ($28), and JPMorgan ($42) reflected AI-competition fears and peer multiple compression — not execution. | Even after the cuts, the average target still implies ~69% upside. When analysts trim targets but maintain bullish ratings on a beat-and-raise quarter, it’s usually multiple compression doing the work — and multiples tend to re-expand when narratives flip. |
| Market conviction signal | FIG debuted at $33 in July 2025, ran to an all-time high of $142.92 on day one, then suffered an ~88% peak-to-trough drawdown to a 52-week low of $16.60 in April 2026. The stock has since reclaimed key support and broken out of its falling wedge — popping +13% on the Q1 earnings reception — even as the sell side trimmed price targets around it. | A stock that bottoms, holds key support through a wave of price-target cuts, then breaks out on heavy volume is a classic tape signal that the marginal seller is exhausted and accumulation is underway. Price is moving ahead of the sell side. |
| Upcoming triggers | Traders are watching Figma’s annual user conference Config in June 2026 (major Make/Weave and agent reveals expected), Q2 2026 earnings in early September with guidance already set at $348–350M, and the possibility of further enterprise wins or AI feature drops between now and year-end. | Config has historically been Figma’s biggest narrative-shaping event of the year, and it lands squarely inside our trade window. Each major AI reveal is a potential incremental catalyst for the multiple re-rating story. |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
Put it all together, and FIG is looking less like a broken post-IPO SaaS story and more like a re-accelerating, AI-monetizing design platform with a fortified balance sheet and a tape that’s quietly moving ahead of the sell-side narrative.
The story is getting stronger by the week, but the chart is what could determine whether this move has more room to run in the near term. Here are the bullish technical signals traders should be watching now.
Bullish Technical Signals
#1 Falling Wedge Pattern Breakout: The daily chart shows FIG had been compressing inside a falling wedge (purple trendlines) for several weeks — a pattern that reflects progressively weaker selling into each new low. The stock has now broken above the upper boundary on elevated volume, which is the textbook confirmation that traders wait for. Falling wedges typically resolve higher because they represent a final capitulation by sellers; the volume surge on this breakout suggests real institutional participation behind the move, not just a low-liquidity drift.
FIG – Daily Chart
#2 Price Above MA: That breakout has also carried price back above the 50-day simple moving average — the first sustained reclaim in months. Beyond being a widely watched bull/bear dividing line, the 50-SMA now acts as dynamic support on any pullback, giving dip-buyers a clear level to lean on. As long as FIG holds above it, the short-term trend structure favors higher prices.
#3 Bullish ADX: The ADX setup reinforces the breakout’s credibility on two fronts. First, the +DI line has crossed above the –DI line, confirming that buyers are dictating price direction. Second, the ADX line itself is rising from a low base below both DI lines, which signals that a new trend is not only forming but accelerating. Because ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, this upturn from depressed levels is particularly telling: it suggests the move is still in its early innings with room to build before reaching overheated readings.
#4 Bullish Aroon: Aroon Up sits above 70 while Aroon Down has dropped below 30 — the kind of wide spread that marks a well-established directional move, not a one-day spike. This reading tells us the stock is consistently printing new highs within its lookback window while sellers remain dormant. Combined with the ADX trend-strength reading above, it paints a picture of clean, one-sided momentum.
#5 Above Support Area: Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, FIG has rallied back above a former resistance level at approximately $17.09 (pink dotted line) that now functions as support. These resistance-turned-support flips are among the most reliable levels in technical analysis because they represent a price zone where prior sellers have been absorbed, clearing overhead supply. Holding above this zone on a weekly closing basis gives the stock a solid structural floor for the next leg higher.
FIG – Weekly Chart
#6 %K Above %D: On the weekly chart, the %K line has crossed above %D while both were still in oversold territory — the highest-conviction version of this signal. An oversold crossover indicates that selling pressure has been exhausted and fresh buying momentum is entering at depressed prices. Because this is occurring on the weekly timeframe, it carries more weight than a daily signal and points to a potential multi-week to multi-month inflection in trend.
#7 Bullish MACD: Finally, the weekly MACD line has crossed above its signal line, confirming that short-term momentum is now outpacing the longer-term trend for the first time in this cycle. The histogram bars flipping from negative to positive reflect accelerating buying pressure underneath the surface. Historically, MACD crossovers on the weekly chart act as early-stage buy signals for intermediate-term moves — aligning neatly with our 3–6 month timeframe.
Risks to Consider
Even strong setups can fail, especially in a volatile post-IPO software name like Figma. A few things could knock the stock off course:
- A breakdown back below the falling wedge breakout level on heavy volume
- Negative company-specific news or broader SaaS/software weakness — early-2026 fears of AI commoditizing software already pushed FIG down ~88% from its post-IPO highs and could resurface if AI narratives sour again
- Margin compression risk — management has declined to set a floor on gross margins as AI compute costs scale with usage of generation features
- Government and legal risks — Figma’s federal AI products rely on Anthropic’s Claude, and an ongoing dispute between Anthropic and the U.S. government over supply-chain risk designations could pressure federal sales
- Securities class-action investigations — Lowey Dannenberg opened a probe in March 2026, and a separate November 2025 suit alleges Figma trained AI models on user data without permission
- Competition and AI disruption — AI-native challengers like Google Stitch and Anthropic’s Claude Design, plus incumbents Adobe and Canva, raise the risk of seat compression or workflow bypass; multiple analysts cited this in recent price-target cuts
- Insider selling and lockup overhang — multiple Form 4 filings in early 2026 (GC, CTO, CAO sales) and post-IPO lockup windows can add overhead supply
- Continued GAAP unprofitability — Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $142 million; execution has to stay on track for the operating-leverage thesis to hold
The Bottom Line
FIG is breaking out of a multi-month falling wedge on the daily chart while bouncing cleanly off a resistance-turned-support level on the weekly — a dual-timeframe technical setup that historically signals the start of a sustained move higher.
The fundamental story underneath the chart is just as strong: a record Q1 revenue beat at +46% YoY, a 139% net dollar retention rate — the highest in over two years, and a $1.6 billion cash pile underwriting accelerating AI monetization.
Combine that with multiple commercial and product catalysts staggered through year-end — Config in June, Q2 earnings in early September, and a steady drumbeat of AI feature launches — and FIG looks like one of the more compelling risk-reward setups on the board right now.
If this is a trade you want to get in on, here’s how we’d play it. Below you’ll find our exact entry level, both price targets that imply 27%–48% potential upside, and the stop-loss we’re using to manage the downside.
Recommended Trade Setup
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Buy Level | Above approximately $23.70 |
| Price Target 1 | $30.00 — Potential upside: 27% |
| Price Target 2 | $35.00 — Potential upside: 48% |
| Timeframe | Next 3–6 months |
| Stop-Loss | $20.00 on a closing basis |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
For a risk of approximately $3.70 per share, the target rewards are about $6.30 and $11.30 per share. That makes this roughly a 1:2 and 1:3 risk-reward trade. In other words, the setup offers nearly 2x to 3x more potential upside than downside.
Happy Trading!
Tara and Greg