One of the most interesting “smart money” trades we came across yesterday was with Roblox Corp (NYSE: RBLX).
If you’re new here, a “smart money” trade is a relatively large volume option trade most likely made by a pro trader. The idea is to analyze unusual options activity, identify an interesting “smart money” trade, and then make our best guess as to:
- Which direction the trader thinks the stock is headed
- How much they think it will rise (or fall), and
- In what time frame this will all happen.
If we like what we see after putting all these pieces together, we can mimic the “smart money” trade (on a smaller scale), and potentially ride alongside our pro trader to profits. With all this in mind…
A Pro Trader Just Bet $2,428,560 that RBLX will Stay Bearish For the Next 4 Months
On Wednesday, February 16, 2022, a pro trader seems to have bought 3,373 of the June 17, 2022, $50 put options on RBLX for $7.20 per contract. His outlay was $2,428,560.
Interestingly, there seem to be multiple option trades done for RBLX yesterday, for the same strike price and expiration date, with the total amount translating to multi-million dollars.
RBLX – Option Trades
The trade’s breakeven point is at $42.80, meaning that RBLX needs to decline to $42.80 for the put option trade to break even. This is a nearly 21% downside from the stock’s previous close of $53.87. And then for every $1 the stock falls below $42.80, our “smart money” trader will make $337,300!
On analyzing the chart of RBLX, the stock seems to be trading within a downtrend channel (marked as blue color lines). It is also currently trading below a support-turned-resistance area (marked as a pink color dotted line). All this makes it likely our pro trader is bearish on RBLX.
RBLX – Daily Chart
This lends credence to our conclusion that the pro sold these put options, as opposed to buying them.
If you agree and would like to mimic this trade, here’s how:
Buy to open the June 17, 2022, $50 put options on RBLX for $7.20 or better.
As always, depending on your risk appetite, do remember to set a stop-loss for the options trade to avoid significant losses.
Happy Trading!
— Trades of The Day Research Team
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