🚨 Trade Update: TRVI — Both Price Targets Hit ✅✅
We recommended Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRVI) on February 24, 2026, at a buy level of $11.20, with price targets of $13.50 (PT1) and $15.00 (PT2) and a stop-loss at $9.90 on a closing basis.
Both targets have been achieved — PT2 was reached on April 17, 2026, delivering gains of approximately 21% and 34% from the entry level in about seven and a half weeks. The stock has continued running well beyond PT2 since, now trading around $19.07 — up roughly 70% from our original entry level.
Bottom line: Both targets hit in about seven and a half weeks — TRVI has kept climbing since and now sits ~70% above entry. And now, on to today’s featured setup…
Samsara Inc. (NYSE: IOT) just broke out of a multi-month triangle and looks headed even higher.
As we’ll get to just ahead, the combination of a standout earnings beat that pushed the company past a major revenue milestone, a wave of new AI-powered product launches, and a fresh technical breakout makes IOT one of the more interesting setups on the board. Here’s what’s going on…
The Themes Behind the Move
Samsara runs what it calls a Connected Operations Platform — a system that pulls real-world data off vehicles, equipment, and job sites (through cameras, GPS trackers, and sensors) and turns it into a single dashboard that companies use to run their fleets and operations more safely and efficiently.
In plain English, if a business operates trucks, construction equipment, delivery vans, or physical worksites, Samsara is the software-and-hardware layer that tells managers where everything is, how it’s being used, whether drivers are being safe, and where money is being wasted. Its customers span transportation, construction, logistics, field services, utilities, manufacturing, government, and more — and once a company wires its operations into the platform, switching away is difficult, which makes the recurring subscription revenue especially sticky.
IOT’s latest move reflects a powerful confluence of developments — financial, product, and thematic — that have come together in rapid succession to reframe the company’s near-term growth story.
| Theme / Catalyst | What Happened | Why Traders Care |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 earnings beat + $2B ARR milestone + guidance raise | On June 4, 2026, Samsara reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $478.8M (+31% YoY), beating estimates, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching roughly $1.99B (+30% YoY). It marked the company’s third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.005B–$2.013B. | A revenue beat combined with a guidance raise is the signal traders want — it means growth is accelerating, not slowing. Sustaining ~30% growth while crossing near a $2B revenue run-rate and staying GAAP-profitable shows the business is scaling profitably, a rare combination among fast-growing software names. |
| Investor Day + major AI product launches | On June 24, 2026, Samsara hosted an Investor Day alongside financial and platform updates, and rolled out a slate of new products — including Agent Studio, a no-code toolkit that lets operations teams build custom AI agents to automate repetitive tasks, plus new cameras and a Bluetooth shipping-label tracker. These newer products have recently contributed more than 20% of net new business. | Each new product deepens how embedded Samsara becomes in a customer’s operations, which makes the platform harder to leave and opens fresh ways to sell more to existing accounts. The move into AI-driven automation also expands the company’s addressable market well beyond its original fleet-tracking roots. |
| Sector tailwinds | Samsara is riding the long-running digitization of the “physical economy” — fleets, construction, logistics, infrastructure, and field services. As operators wrestle with labor shortages, equipment theft, and tighter efficiency and compliance demands, demand for sensors and AI-driven automation keeps rising. A recent Samsara Asset Theft & Loss report found mid-size industrial operations lose an average of $18 million a year to untracked equipment theft. | These are structural, multi-year tailwinds that tend to hold up regardless of the broader market. Hard data quantifying the cost of theft gives customers a concrete ROI reason to buy Samsara’s tracking hardware and software — turning an efficiency “nice-to-have” into a budgeted operating expense. |
| Fundamentals snapshot | FY2026 revenue came in around $1.62B (~30% YoY), with ARR reaching roughly $1.99B in Q1 FY27. Non-GAAP gross margins remain high (mid-to-high 70s%), operating leverage is improving, and free cash flow has strengthened meaningfully year-over-year. Growth is increasingly concentrated in large customers, with the $100K+ and $1M+ ARR cohorts expanding fastest. | High margins, improving cash flow, and faster growth among the biggest accounts point to a business shifting toward higher-quality, software-like economics as it scales. That combination is what supports a premium valuation and gives the growth story staying power. |
| Analyst coverage | Across the 20 analysts covering IOT, the average twelve-month price target is $45.94, with a high target of $57.00 and a low of $30.00 — the average implying roughly 20% upside from recent levels. Recent actions are constructive: RBC Capital raised its target to $42 (Outperform) and Piper Sandler raised to $40 (Overweight), with BTIG, TD Cowen, KeyBanc, BMO, and Bank of America reiterating Buys in the $41–$47 range around Investor Day and earnings. | A tight cluster of targets in the mid-$40s with a $57 high end signals a coverage universe that keeps nudging estimates higher as execution delivers. When multiple firms are raising into strength rather than fading it, it points to broad institutional confidence in the trajectory. |
| Market conviction signal | In July 2026, the broader enterprise software sector saw severe volatility — sparked by IBM’s roughly 25% drop on fears that spending on AI infrastructure is crowding out traditional software budgets. Samsara, however, held up and largely decoupled from the pure-software weakness, with its stock pushing to fresh breakout territory even as peers sold off. | Samsara’s real-world sensors, safety cameras, and vehicle data generate mission-critical information that generic AI models and server spending can’t replicate — so it reads less like a “software budget” line item and more like essential infrastructure. A stock that rallies while its sector is being sold is showing genuine relative strength. |
| Upcoming triggers | Near-term catalysts include the company’s Annual General Meeting on ~July 22, 2026, and its next earnings report (Q2 FY2027), expected in early September 2026, which will be closely watched for ARR growth durability and emerging-product traction. Traders are also watching for customer adoption metrics around Agent Studio and any large new customer wins through H2 2026. | A staggered set of catalysts — an AGM, an earnings print, and rolling product-adoption updates — each capable of independently moving the stock through the back half of 2026, keeping a steady stream of potential upside triggers on the calendar. |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
Put it all together, and IOT is looking less like an expensive growth story leaning on momentum and more like a profitably scaling operations platform with accelerating revenue, a widening AI product suite, sticky large-customer relationships, and relative strength while its own sector was being sold off.
The story is getting stronger, but the chart is what could determine whether this move has more room to run in the near term. Here are the bullish technical signals traders should be watching now.
Bullish Technical Signals
#1 Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Breakout: IOT has broken out of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart — a pattern formed by converging trendlines as price carves out lower highs and higher lows, reflecting a tightening standoff between buyers and sellers. This volatility compression typically resolves with a decisive thrust in the direction of the prior trend. The breakout has come on expanding volume, confirming genuine demand behind the move and signaling that the consolidation phase is complete. Triangle breakouts of this duration often mark the launch point of the next trending leg rather than a short-lived pop.
IOT – Daily Chart
#2 Price above MAs: IOT is trading above both its 50-day SMA ($32.96) and 200-day SMA ($33.69), placing it firmly in bullish territory on the daily timeframe. The tight clustering of the two averages is notable — it reflects a market that has fully absorbed overhead supply and coiled through a long base, typically a precursor to a directional expansion. Both averages now sit well below current price and act as layered dynamic support, giving buyers a clearly defined zone to defend on any pullback.
#3 Bullish ADX: The directional indicators are aligned bullishly: +DI is above –DI, confirming buyers control the trend, while the ADX line has turned up from below –DI and is now advancing toward +DI. That rising ADX is the key tell — it signals that the trend is not just present but strengthening. Historically, this configuration (dominant +DI paired with an ADX rising off a low base) marks the early innings of a new or accelerating uptrend, before the move becomes obvious to the broader market.
#4 Bullish Aroon: On the daily chart, Aroon Up (orange) is pinned above 70 while Aroon Down (blue) sits below 30 — a textbook signature of an established uptrend. This spread tells us price is consistently registering new highs across the lookback window while failing to make comparable new lows, meaning sellers have effectively stepped aside. Sustained readings in this zone typically coincide with the trend’s most productive phase, not its exhaustion point.
#5 Above Support Area: On the weekly chart, IOT has pushed back above a well-tested resistance-turned-support level (marked in pink) — a zone that previously capped rallies and is now catching pullbacks, confirming the classic role reversal. Reinforcing the setup, price is trading above both the 50-week and 200-week SMAs, which have flattened and begun to curl higher. Multi-timeframe alignment like this — where daily breakout structure sits on top of weekly support reclamation — is what separates a tactical bounce from a durable trend change.
IOT – Weekly Chart
#6 MACD Above Signal Line: On the weekly chart, the MACD line (blue) has crossed above its signal line (orange), triggering a bullish crossover. Because this signal is firing on the weekly rather than daily timeframe, it carries substantially more weight — it reflects a durable shift in medium-term momentum rather than short-term noise. The crossover indicates that near-term buying pressure is now outpacing the longer-term momentum baseline, historically one of the more reliable early signals for the start of a multi-month advance.
#7 %K above %D: On the weekly chart, %K has crossed above %D, signaling that buying momentum is overtaking selling pressure on a longer-term basis. As with the MACD, this crossover on the weekly timeframe carries more weight than an equivalent daily signal — it points to a meaningful, sustained shift in momentum rather than a fleeting reaction. Combined with the MACD crossover firing in the same window, it suggests momentum indicators are confirming each other, which strengthens the case for a longer-horizon entry rather than a quick trade.
Risks to Consider
Even strong setups can fail, especially in a premium-valued growth stock like Samsara. A few things could knock the stock off course:
- The stock could reverse if it breaks back down through the symmetrical triangle on high volume, negating the breakout and inviting momentum sellers.
- Any negative headline, broad market weakness, or a fresh wave of selling across enterprise software could drag the stock lower regardless of company-specific strength.
- Samsara trades at a premium valuation (price-to-sales in the low-to-mid teens), which leaves little room for disappointment — any growth deceleration below the ~20% ARR range could trigger sharp multiple compression.
- Insider selling has been notable, including co-founder and director John Bicket selling roughly 264,000 shares (~$9.7 million) in early July 2026, with the CEO and other insiders also selling — activity that can weigh on sentiment even when routine.
- Ongoing hardware costs and heavy R&D investment can pressure near-term margins as the company continues to scale.
- The telematics, IoT, and fleet-management space is crowded and competitive, requiring Samsara to keep differentiating through AI, its multi-product platform, and data network effects.
- Samsara relies heavily on transportation, logistics, and construction — cyclical end-markets that are vulnerable to macroeconomic slowdowns, freight downturns, and slower project activity.
- Broader regulatory changes or shifts in enterprise and fleet spending across the sector could pressure demand or sentiment for the group as a whole.
The Bottom Line
IOT is breaking out of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart while reclaiming a well-tested support area above its rising 50-week and 200-week moving averages on the weekly — a dual-timeframe technical setup that historically signals the start of a sustained move higher. The fundamental story underneath the chart is just as strong: ~30% recurring-revenue growth at a near-$2B scale, three straight quarters of GAAP profitability, and a widening suite of AI-powered products. With multiple catalysts staggered through the timeline — an Annual General Meeting, a September earnings print, and rolling product-adoption updates — IOT looks like one of the more compelling risk-reward setups on the board right now.
If this is a trade you want to get in on, here’s how we’d play it. Below you’ll find our exact entry level, both price targets that imply 29%–50% potential upside, and the stop-loss we’re using to manage the downside.
Recommended Trade Setup
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Buy Level | Above approximately $38.70 |
| Price Target 1 | $50.00 — Potential upside: 29% |
| Price Target 2 | $58.00 — Potential upside: 50% |
| Timeframe | Next 3–6 months |
| Stop-Loss | $32.40 on a closing basis |
| Trade Invalidation | Void if price hits stop-loss before entry triggers |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
For a risk of approximately $6.30 per share, the target rewards are about $11.30 and $19.30 per share. That makes this roughly a 1:2 and 1:3 risk-reward trade. In other words, the setup offers nearly 2x to 3x more potential upside than downside.
Note on Trade Invalidation: This recommendation stays active as long as the technical structure holds. If IOT drops to or below the $32.40 stop-loss (on a closing basis) before the $38.70 entry triggers, the trade is automatically void — the support underpinning the thesis would have broken, and the risk-reward setup would no longer justify entry.
Happy Trading!
Tara and Greg
🥈 Almost Made the Cut
Today’s featured trade, Samsara Inc. (NYSE: IOT), was our top pick of several breakout candidates we evaluated — combining a high-quality technical breakout with strong execution, accelerating fundamentals, and multiple catalysts that fit our three-month swing window. The following two stocks were strong candidates that made it to the final round — they came up just short of the top spot, but remain on our watchlist and could be featured soon:
UiPath, Inc. (NYSE: PATH) — UiPath continues to transform itself from a traditional automation company into an enterprise AI orchestration platform. It recently achieved its first GAAP operating profit, raised full-year guidance, and keeps expanding its AI agent offerings while aggressively repurchasing shares. Technically, PATH shows one of the strongest accumulation-to-breakout patterns on our watchlist, with a well-defined base and a favorable volume profile. The key catalyst now shifts to September earnings, where stronger recurring-revenue growth and continued AI adoption could unlock a meaningful re-rating.
Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE: ALLY) — Ally remains one of the market’s more attractive value-oriented financial opportunities. Improving net interest margins, disciplined credit performance, ongoing capital returns, and an imminent earnings catalyst provide a clear path for further upside if management keeps executing. While the expected move may be less explosive than higher-growth technology names, Ally’s mix of attractive valuation, improving fundamentals, and a textbook technical breakout makes it one of the strongest risk-adjusted swing candidates in the financial sector.
