We built this trade as a lottery ticket. And today it hit the jackpot.
If you’re still holding our Chevron (CVX) March $170 calls from the original “Venezuela Chaos Trade,” this is your final window to cash them out.
The Numbers Say It All
Back in early January, we structured this trade as a small, defined-risk bet with asymmetric upside.
At the time, we were looking at:
- $2.90 per contract
- Roughly $290 per call
- A $1,000-style position for a swing at a windfall
Today? Those same calls are sitting on $30+ of intrinsic value with CVX trading around $200+.
That turns:
- $290 into $3,000 per contract
- $1,000 into $9,000+
That’s a 900%+ return.
| Metric | Per Contract | 3 Contracts |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Cost | $290 | $870 |
| Current Value | $3,000+ | $9,000+ |
| Profit | $2,700+ | $8,100+ |
| Return | +900%+ | +900%+ |
This Was the “Lottery Ticket” Outcome
If you go back to the original article, we literally mapped this out. There was a scenario where Chevron pushed into the $190–$200 range and the calls exploded in value.
That was the lottery ticket outcome. And that’s exactly why we structured it the way we did:
- Small size
- Defined risk
- Huge upside if it hit
Many of these trades don’t work, but this one did.
We Just Hit the Top of the Table
Back in the original article, I included a “what could this turn into?” table showing how this trade might pay off if CVX made a major move higher.
At the top end of that table, we showed a scenario where Chevron pushed toward the $200 area and the option position turned into a true windfall.
That wasn’t hype — that was the upside case we were aiming for with a properly sized lottery ticket. And now? We’re there.
| CVX Price | Intrinsic Value per Call | Value of 3 Contracts | Profit / Loss | Return on $870 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | $5 | $1,500 | +$630 | +72% |
| $180 | $10 | $3,000 | +$2,130 | +245% |
| $190 | $20 | $6,000 | +$5,130 | +590% |
| $200+ | $30+ | $9,000+ | +$8,100+ | +900%+ |
This is why we use the phrase lottery ticket. Most expire worthless. But every once in a while, one goes exactly where the upside table said it could go.
Why I Already Took Profits
In a prior update, I shared that I had already taken profits on this position after a major move higher.
That locked in a substantial gain. But markets don’t stop moving just because we take money off the table.
The continued escalation involving Iran has added another layer of pressure to energy markets, pushing this trade even further into the money.
If you held a piece — or if you didn’t act on that earlier update — you’re now sitting on the absolute top end of the payoff curve.
Action To Take
Today is expiration. This is the time to get paid. SELL TO CLOSE the March 20 $170 calls.
| Situation Now | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Trade hit maximum payoff zone | You already captured the intended outcome |
| Expiration is here | No time left |
| Stock near peak levels | Pullbacks can quickly erode gains |
| Risk/Reward flipped | Now it’s about cashing in your lotto ticket |
The Takeaway
These trades don’t always work. That’s why we size them small and define the risk upfront. But when one hits — like this one did — it can more than make up for the rest.
This is the model:
- Controlled downside
- Occasional outsized upside
- Discipline on the exit
The trade did its job. Take the win.
Good trading,
Greg Patrick
P.S. If you’ve been following along since the original Venezuela Chaos Trade, you’ve now seen exactly how this approach works. These setups don’t come around often. But when they do — and when we execute them with discipline — they can meaningfully move the needle.