🚨 Trade Update: MRVL — Both Price Targets Hit ✅✅
We recommended Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) on March 9, 2026, at a buy level of $93.30, with price targets of $111.00 (PT1) and $122.00 (PT2) and a stop-loss at $84.00 on a closing basis.
Both targets have been achieved — PT2 was reached on April 10, 2026, delivering gains of approximately 19% and 31% from the entry level in about a month. The stock went on to run far beyond PT2 in the months since, and even after a sizable pullback from its highs, it’s now trading around $209.32 — up roughly 124% from our original entry level.
Bottom line: Both targets hit in about a month — MRVL went on to more than double, and remains up ~124% from entry despite cooling off from its highs. And now, on to today’s featured setup…
We flagged RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) in our breakout watchlist several weeks back — and the stock has since broken out of a multi-month symmetrical triangle on a +7.3% earnings-driven surge and looks headed even higher.
As we’ll get to just ahead, the combination of a huge earnings beat and significantly raised full-year outlook, a record order book that locks in years of forward revenue, and a fresh technical breakout makes RTX one of the more interesting setups on the board. Here’s what’s going on…
The Themes Behind the Move
RTX Corporation is a U.S.-based aerospace and defense giant that designs, manufactures, and services systems for commercial airlines, military branches, and government customers worldwide. It operates through three segments: Collins Aerospace (avionics, cabin interiors, and connected aviation systems), Pratt & Whitney (commercial and military aircraft engines, plus aftermarket maintenance), and Raytheon (missiles, radars, and threat-detection systems for defense customers). The company was formerly known as Raytheon Technologies before renaming to RTX Corporation in July 2023.
In plain English, when a commercial airline needs new engines or aftermarket support to keep its fleet flying, or when a government needs missiles, radars, or defense electronics to modernize its arsenal, RTX is one of the first names on the shortlist. Its business hinges on the pace of global defense budgets, the trajectory of commercial air travel and aircraft maintenance cycles, and how efficiently it can convert a mountain of backlog orders into revenue and cash flow.
RTX’s latest move reflects a powerful confluence of developments — financial, commercial, and strategic — that have come together in rapid succession to fundamentally reframe the company’s near-term growth trajectory.
| Theme / Catalyst | What Happened | Why Traders Care |
|---|---|---|
| Blowout Q2 + significantly raised FY26 guidance | On July 23, 2026, RTX reported Q2 adjusted sales of $24.7B (+14% reported / +16% organic), adjusted EPS of $1.89 (vs. ~$1.66 consensus, +21% YoY), and free cash flow of $2.9B (vs. negative in the prior year). Full-year 2026 outlook was raised meaningfully: adjusted sales to $95–96B (from $92.5–93.5B), organic growth to 8–9% (from 5–6%), adjusted EPS to $7.10–7.25 (from $6.70–6.90), and free cash flow to $8.50–8.75B. Shares surged +7.3% on the news. | A beat-and-raise of this magnitude — with roughly two-thirds of the profit-guidance lift coming from Raytheon’s missile and defense business — signals both accelerating demand and expanding margins across all three segments. It’s the clearest possible confirmation that RTX is executing on its massive backlog rather than merely sitting on it. |
| Record $289 billion backlog | RTX disclosed a massive $289 billion backlog (+22% YoY), split between $170 billion in commercial aerospace orders and $119 billion in defense. The Pratt & Whitney segment’s GTF engine order book alone surpassed 8,000 engines in orders and commitments. | A backlog nearly three times the size of annual revenue provides unparalleled, multi-year visibility. That volume of locked-in orders effectively insulates the company from short-term macroeconomic shocks and underwrites long-term cash flow — a rare setup for a large-cap industrial. |
| Sector tailwinds | RTX is simultaneously riding two massive macro tailwinds. On the defense side, governments worldwide are urgently rebuilding missile and munitions inventories depleted by ongoing conflicts, driving strong demand for Patriot, Standard Missile, AMRAAM, and related systems, alongside higher U.S. defense budget proposals and European and Middle East orders. On the commercial side, airlines continue spending heavily on aftermarket maintenance, parts, and engine upgrades to keep fleets flying amid strong global travel demand. | Both tailwinds are structural, not cyclical — and RTX is one of the very few companies with meaningful exposure to both. When RTX and Lockheed Martin both raised 2026 forecasts on the same theme in the same week, it confirmed this isn’t a one-off — it’s a durable spending cycle. |
| Strong fundamentals + expanding cash generation | Q2 revenue of $24.71 billion was up 14.5% YoY (16% organic), with adjusted EPS of $1.89 up 21.1% YoY. Operating cash flow hit $3.5 billion, generating $2.9 billion in free cash flow. Full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance was raised to $8.50–8.75 billion, with organic sales growth guided to 8–9%. | The combination of double-digit organic growth, margin expansion across all three segments, and multi-billion-dollar free cash flow gives RTX the financial flexibility to fund capacity expansions, return capital to shareholders, and absorb any short-term supply-chain hiccups without straining the balance sheet. |
| Analyst coverage | Among the 22 analysts covering RTX, the average twelve-month price target sits at $211.38, with a high target of $240.00 — implying roughly 15% upside from current levels at the top end. Recent coverage is constructive: Jefferies maintained a Buy with a $220 target (June 2026), and Bank of America reaffirmed Buy in the days leading into earnings. | With the stock already trading near the average target following the +7.3% earnings surge, the more interesting signal is the high-end $240 and a cluster of pre-earnings Buy reiterations — hallmarks of a coverage universe still catching up to a materially stronger 2026 outlook. |
| Market conviction signal | Beyond earnings, RTX has stacked a series of strategic wins in rapid succession: a $1.8 billion U.S. Navy contract for SPY-6 radar production (with options potentially taking cumulative value to ~$3.3B), an agreement to sell Raytheon’s Blue Canyon Technologies business for $620 million, and a new Collins Aerospace–Etihad Engineering nacelle MRO joint venture in Abu Dhabi. The breakout came on a decisive +7.3% single-session move on volume well above the recent average, gapping cleanly through the upper boundary of a three-month symmetrical triangle. | When a large-cap industrial clears a multi-month consolidation on outsized volume — on the same day a substantial earnings beat and guidance raise land, and in the same week as a string of high-value contract and portfolio wins — that’s the kind of tape signal that suggests institutional money is buying conviction, not chasing momentum. |
| Upcoming triggers | Traders are watching Q3 2026 earnings around October 20, 2026 (consensus EPS ~$1.73 pre any revisions), potential follow-on order commitments from the July 2026 Farnborough International Airshow (with airlines like British Airways, AirAsia, and Finnair moving into final contract phases), additional defense contract announcements as production ramps continue, and an ex-dividend date of August 14, 2026. | A staggered set of catalysts — earnings, potential Farnborough follow-on deals, additional defense contract wins, and the dividend event — each capable of independently supporting the stock into and through the back half of 2026. |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
Put it all together, and RTX is looking less like a mature industrial trading on hope of a defense cycle and more like a company actively executing on the biggest simultaneous boom in commercial aerospace aftermarket and global defense restocking in decades — with a $289 billion backlog, raised full-year guidance, and margin expansion across all three segments backing it up.
The story is getting stronger by the week, but the chart is what could determine whether this move has more room to run in the near term. Here are the bullish technical signals traders should be watching now.
Bullish Technical Signals
#1 Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Breakout: RTX has broken out of a symmetrical triangle that took roughly three months to form, with price carving lower highs and higher lows into a progressively tighter range. That coil represents a standoff between buyers and sellers — and standoffs typically resolve in the direction of the trend that preceded them, which here was up. The breakout through the upper trendline came with a decisive volume expansion, which matters: without volume, breakouts routinely fail. With it, the compression phase is over and a fresh bullish leg is likely underway. The prior triangle boundary (~$200) now flips from resistance to support.
RTX – Daily Chart
#2 Price above MAs: RTX is trading above both its 50-day SMA ($185.64) and 200-day SMA ($186.31), placing it unambiguously in bullish territory. More telling is how tightly the two averages are clustered — a setup that typically precedes directional expansion, since it reflects a market where short- and long-term trend forces have realigned after digesting overhead supply. Both MAs now sit well below current price, giving buyers two layers of dynamic support to lean on if a pullback develops.
#3 MACD Above Signal Line: The MACD line has crossed above its signal line, confirming that short-term momentum is accelerating faster than the longer-term trend average. Crossovers occurring from below zero moving up — as this one is — carry more weight than those originating in already-extended territory, because they mark the early stage of a momentum shift rather than its exhaustion. This aligns cleanly with the price breakout and adds a momentum-based confirmation to the structural one.
#4 Bullish ADX: The +DI line sits above the –DI line, confirming buyers are in directional control. More importantly, the ADX itself is turning higher from below and rising toward the +DI — the classic signature of a trend that’s transitioning from dormant to active. A rising ADX in the presence of +DI dominance is one of the more reliable signals that a new uptrend is not just present but strengthening, rather than drifting sideways.
#5 Flag Pattern Breakout: Zooming out to the weekly chart reveals a textbook bull flag: a steep prior advance (the “pole”) followed by an orderly, downward-sloping consolidation within a tight parallel channel (the “flag”). Price has now broken above the flag’s upper boundary. Flags are continuation patterns by construction — the consolidation digests the prior move, flushes weak hands, and resets overbought momentum readings before the next leg. Measured-move projection from the pole supports meaningful upside from the breakout point. With RTX also trading well above both its 50-week and 200-week SMA, the longer-term uptrend is firmly intact. Critically, this weekly signal aligns with the daily breakout — multi-timeframe confluence is what separates high-probability setups from noise.
RTX – Weekly Chart
#6 Bullish RSI: The weekly RSI has cleared 50 and continues to trend higher — a two-part confirmation worth unpacking. The 50-level cross marks the handoff of momentum from sellers to buyers; the continued upward slope tells us that momentum is building, not stalling near the pivot. At ~65, RSI is firmly bullish but still short of overbought (70+), meaning there’s runway before the indicator itself becomes a headwind. This is the sweet spot for trend-following entries.
#7 Bullish Aroon: Aroon Up is at 100 while Aroon Down sits near 28 — a wide separation that indicates a strong, well-established uptrend rather than a fledgling one. The Aroon Up pinning at its ceiling means new highs are being registered consistently within the lookback window, while the depressed Aroon Down confirms the absence of meaningful lows. Together, they corroborate the trend strength that ADX is picking up on the daily chart.
Risks to Consider
Even strong setups can fail, especially in a large-cap defense and aerospace name like RTX. A few things could knock the stock off course:
- A breakdown back below the symmetrical triangle support level on heavy volume would invalidate the breakout thesis and open the door to a deeper pullback
- Negative company-specific news or broader market weakness — any rotation out of defense and industrials, or a sudden shift in the geopolitical backdrop, could pressure the entire sector
- Valuation premium — following the +7.3% post-earnings surge to ~$209, RTX is trading at a premium P/E of around 36.5, leaving limited margin of safety if execution slips or guidance disappoints
- Priced-for-perfection setup — the gap-up on July 23 already prices in a good portion of the good news, so some consolidation or pullback near the breakout level is possible before the next leg higher
- Supply-chain, labor, and production-capacity constraints remain industry-wide headwinds — though RTX is investing heavily (over $800 million) to modernize facilities and double SPY-6 radar output by 2028
- Execution risk on the massive capacity ramp — converting a $289 billion backlog into revenue at the pace guidance implies requires flawless coordination across suppliers, integration, and manufacturing
- Competition from other prime defense contractors (Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics) and commercial aerospace peers (GE Aerospace, Safran) could compress pricing power on any given contract
- Regulatory and geopolitical risk — potential tariff or trade impacts, and any macro shifts in U.S. or allied defense budgets, could weigh on the sector’s growth outlook
The Bottom Line
RTX is breaking out of a three-month symmetrical triangle on the daily chart while also clearing a multi-month bull flag on the weekly — a dual-timeframe technical setup that historically signals the start of a sustained move higher.
The fundamental story underneath the chart is just as strong: a blowout Q2 with adjusted EPS of $1.89 (+21% YoY) on revenue of $24.7B (+14% YoY), a record $289 billion backlog providing multi-year revenue visibility, and a significantly raised FY2026 outlook to $95–96B in sales and $8.50–8.75B in free cash flow.
Combine that with multiple commercial and operational catalysts staggered through the back half of 2026 — Q3 earnings around October 20, potential Farnborough Airshow follow-on order commitments, ongoing defense contract wins, the SPY-6 production ramp, and the new Collins–Etihad JV — and RTX looks like one of the more compelling risk-reward setups on the board right now.
If this is a trade you want to get in on, here’s how we’d play it. Below you’ll find our exact entry level, both price targets that imply 11%–18% potential upside, and the stop-loss we’re using to manage the downside.
Recommended Trade Setup
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Buy Level | Above approximately $212.00 |
| Price Target 1 | $235.00 — Potential upside: 11% |
| Price Target 2 | $250.00 — Potential upside: 18% |
| Timeframe | Next 3–6 months |
| Stop-Loss | $200.00 on a closing basis |
| Trade Invalidation | Void if price hits stop-loss before entry triggers |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
For a risk of approximately $12.00 per share, the target rewards are about $23.00 and $38.00 per share. That makes this roughly a 1:2 and 1:3 risk-reward trade. In other words, the setup offers nearly 2x to 3x more potential upside than downside.
Note on Trade Invalidation: This recommendation stays active as long as the technical structure holds. If RTX drops to or below the $200.00 stop-loss before the $212.00 entry triggers, the trade is automatically void — the support underpinning the thesis would have broken, and the risk-reward setup would no longer justify entry.
Happy Trading!
Tara and Greg
🥈 Almost Made the Cut
Today’s featured trade, RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX), was our top pick of several breakout candidates we evaluated. The following two stocks were strong candidates that made it to the final round — they came up just short of the top spot, but remain on our watchlist and could be featured soon:
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) — Lockheed Martin delivered one of the strongest earnings reports of the season, backed by record backlog growth, accelerating missile demand, and improving F-35 delivery execution. Technically, the stock has just broken out of a lengthy multi-month consolidation on exceptional volume, creating the potential for a fresh institutional re-rating. While its long-term defense outlook remains outstanding, RTX ultimately edged ahead thanks to its broader exposure to both commercial aerospace and defense, providing a slightly more diversified growth profile.
Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) — Fluor continues to transform into a higher-quality engineering and infrastructure company through disciplined project selection, aggressive share repurchases, and a significantly strengthened balance sheet following the monetization of its NuScale investment. The company is well positioned to benefit from long-term capital spending in AI data centers, power infrastructure, nuclear energy, and industrial construction. Although execution risk remains higher than the large-cap defense names, its constructive technical structure and improving fundamental story make FLR one of the more compelling medium-term turnaround opportunities on our radar.
