Trade Updates: Three Active Picks Delivering — NOW, IBM, and SMCI
A quick roundup on three of our recent recommendations, all of which have made significant moves this week.
🚨 Trade Update: ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) — PT1 Hit, Approaching PT2
We recommended NOW on May 19, 2026, with a buy level of $104.50 and price targets of $125.00 (PT1) and $140.00 (PT2).
The stock has surged past PT1 and closed at $135.86 — a 30% gain from entry in just two weeks. PT2 at $140.00 is now within striking distance.
Option A — Book partial profits: With PT1 cleared by a wide margin and a 30% return already in hand, consider booking gains on a portion of your position near current levels. A trailing stop-loss at $125.00 (former PT1) protects a minimum 20% gain from entry.
Option B — Hold for PT2: The stock closed just 3% below PT2 at $140.00 — a potential 34% gain from entry. If you’re holding, use the same $125.00 trailing stop on a closing basis. That level is well-established former resistance turned support, making it a natural floor.
Bottom line: NOW has been a textbook swing trade. Lock in profits on a portion, and let the rest ride toward PT2 with a defined stop underneath.
🚨 Trade Update: IBM (NYSE: IBM) — PT2 Reached ✅
We recommended IBM on May 22, 2026, with a buy level of $254.00 and price targets of $296.00 (PT1) and $324.00 (PT2).
PT1 was hit last Friday. On Monday, the stock surged to an intraday high of $327.98 — clearing PT2 — before pulling back to close at $320.42. That’s a 26% gain from entry in under two weeks, with both price targets reached in rapid succession.
The charts indicate that some near-term consolidation is likely.
Option A — Take profits: Both targets have been achieved, and a 26% return in less than two weeks is an outstanding result. Exiting here is the disciplined move — the trade has done its job.
Option B — Hold for further upside: If you believe the momentum has more room to run, tighten your trailing stop-loss to $296.00 (former PT1) on a closing basis. That locks in a minimum 17% gain from entry while giving the stock space to work through any near-term pullback.
Bottom line: IBM delivered both price targets in rapid succession — PT1 on Friday, PT2 cleared on Monday. With RSI near overbought territory, some consolidation is likely. Take the win, or hold with a tight stop — either way, this has been a textbook swing trade.
🚨 Trade Update: Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) — Approaching PT1
We recommended SMCI on May 7, 2026, with a buy level of $35.50 and price targets of $47.00 (PT1) and $55.00 (PT2).
The stock has rallied sharply from entry and tested the PT1 level over the past two sessions, reaching an intraday high of $48.08 — a 32% move from our buy level.
With the stock now trading in the PT1 zone, here’s how to manage the position:
Option A — Book partial profits: A 32% gain in under a month is a strong result. Consider taking profits on a portion of your position near current levels while raising your stop-loss to $41.33 — a gap support level that locks in a minimum gain of roughly 16% from entry.
Option B — Hold for PT2: If you’re targeting $55.00 for a potential 55% gain from entry, use the same $41.33 trailing stop on a closing basis. The original thesis remains intact, though near-term momentum may need to consolidate before the next leg higher.
Bottom line: SMCI has delivered a strong move toward PT1. Whether you take profits here or hold, the priority is protecting gains — the $41.33 trailing stop ensures this remains a profitable trade even on a pullback.
Now to today’s featured breakout setup…
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) just broke out of a multi-week bull flag on heavy volume — and looks headed even higher.
As we’ll get to just ahead, the combination of a landmark consumer AI PC entry with RTX Spark, Vera Rubin moving to full production, and a fresh technical breakout makes NVDA one of the more interesting setups on the board. Here’s what’s going on…
The Themes Behind the Move
Nvidia is the global leader in accelerated computing and AI infrastructure — designing the GPUs, networking hardware, and software platforms that power virtually every major data center training and deploying AI today. The company operates through two segments — Compute & Networking (data center accelerators, AI software, automotive autonomy) and Graphics (gaming GPUs, professional visualization) — and sells to hyperscalers, OEMs, system integrators, cloud service providers, and automotive manufacturers worldwide.
In plain English, when a hyperscaler, sovereign government, or enterprise needs to train or deploy an AI model at scale, NVIDIA is the de facto supplier. Its business hinges on hyperscaler capex, execution on the Blackwell-to-Rubin product cycle, the rollout of AI to new vectors like consumer PCs and robotics, and the strength of its CUDA software moat against rising competition from AMD and hyperscaler-designed custom silicon.
NVDA’s latest move reflects a powerful confluence of developments — product, commercial, and capital-return — that have come together in rapid succession to materially expand the next leg of the AI growth story.
| Theme / Catalyst | What Happened | Why Traders Care |
|---|---|---|
| RTX Spark — entry into consumer AI PCs | At GTC Taipei / Computex 2026, CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the NVIDIA RTX Spark™, a 1-petaflop consumer AI superchip co-developed with Microsoft and MediaTek — a custom 20-core Arm Grace CPU paired with a Blackwell GPU (6,144 CUDA cores) and up to ~128 GB memory, fabbed on TSMC’s 3 nm-class process. Dell, HP, and other partners are expected to ship over 30 AI PCs later in 2026. | This is a brand-new TAM. RTX Spark moves NVIDIA past the data-center monopoly and into Personal AI hardware — directly challenging Apple Silicon, Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD on their home turf. Intel and AMD both fell sharply on the announcement; Arm ecosystem partners caught a halo bid. |
| Vera Rubin in full production | Huang also confirmed that NVIDIA’s next-generation platform, Vera Rubin — the post-Blackwell architecture optimized for agentic AI workloads — has officially entered full production, with a supply chain roughly twice the scale of the prior generation. CoreWeave (in partnership with Dell) has already deployed the first fully working Vera Rubin NVLink rack, ahead of broader volume availability targeted for late 2026. | Vera Rubin de-risks the post-Blackwell transition and answers the single biggest bear question — “what comes after Blackwell?” — by extending demand visibility cleanly into 2027 and 2028. It also cements NVIDIA’s accelerated one-year product cadence and effectively prevents competitors from catching up to the current cycle. |
| Sector tailwinds — Sovereign AI & $1.7T TAM | Bank of America recently lifted its 2030 AI data center TAM forecast to $1.7 trillion (up from $1.4 trillion). The macro driver is no longer just U.S. hyperscalers — it’s now heavily reinforced by Sovereign AI, with entire nations funding their own domestic AI infrastructure. The theme is also expanding into agentic AI (autonomous agents that act), physical AI/robotics, and now consumer AI PCs. | The TAM is being underwritten not just by corporate capex but by structural government spending across multiple geographies — a demand base that’s largely insensitive to private-sector capex cycles. That broadens the floor and lengthens the runway. |
| Record Q1 + $80B buyback + 2,400% dividend hike | Q1 FY2027 revenue hit $81.6 billion (+85% YoY), with Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion and EPS of $1.87, easily beating consensus. NVIDIA followed up by authorizing an $80 billion share buyback and implementing a 2,400% dividend hike (from $0.01 to $0.25 per share). FY2026 free cash flow ran roughly $97 billion. | An $80B buyback plus a 2,400% dividend bump is management’s clearest possible signal that current valuation still offers attractive long-term returns — even at a $5T+ market cap. It also provides a structural floor for the stock during any near-term volatility. |
| Analyst coverage | Among the 53 analysts covering NVDA, the average 12-month price target sits at $305.38, with a high of $500.00 and a low of $218.00 — implying roughly 36% upside to the mean and as much as 123% upside on the high end. Bank of America (Vivek Arya) recently raised its target to $320 (from $300), while Cantor Fitzgerald (C.J. Muse) holds a Street-high $300–$400 long-term target, noting that NVIDIA’s entire 2026 chip supply is effectively sold out already. | With the average target sitting 36% above current prices and fresh upgrades stacking around the breakout, Wall Street is signaling there’s meaningful runway left even after the post-Computex move. |
| Market conviction signal | After spending the final week of May consolidating in a classic post-earnings “sell-the-news” drift into the low $210s, NVDA surged +6.26% on the June 1 GTC Taipei keynote session on volume of ~212.85M shares — clearing the post-earnings consolidation in a single move. Options markets are aggressively chasing delta to the upside, and Cathie Wood’s ARK reportedly added to its NVDA position on the news. | A high-volume break of a post-earnings consolidation — accompanied by bullish options skew and fresh growth-investor buying — is the tape signal that historically precedes a directional leg higher rather than a low-conviction bounce. |
| Upcoming triggers | Traders are watching the June 4 BofA Securities Global Technology Conference (management participation likely), the June 24 NVIDIA 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Q2 FY2027 earnings on August 26 (key read on the Blackwell-to-Rubin transition), late-2026 wider Vera Rubin volume shipments, and the initial wave of RTX Spark-powered AI PCs from Dell, HP, and other partners later in 2026. | A staggered set of high-conviction catalysts — conferences, earnings, and product ramps — each of which can independently move the stock through year-end. |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
Put it all together, and NVDA is looking less like a stock vulnerable to AI-spend digestion and more like a multi-platform AI franchise — data center, agentic AI, robotics, and now consumer AI — with newly expanded TAM, an $80B buyback floor, and product-cycle visibility that stretches cleanly into 2027 and 2028.
The story is getting stronger by the week, but the chart is what could determine whether this move has more room to run in the near term. Here are the bullish technical signals traders should be watching now.
Bullish Technical Signals
#1 Bull Flag Breakout: After rallying roughly 40% from the April lows through late May, NVDA settled into a narrow, downward-drifting channel — the textbook structure of a bull flag. What matters here isn’t just the pattern itself, but the character of the pullback: the consolidation has been shallow and orderly, with volume tapering on the decline — a sign that holders are absorbing minor profit-taking rather than facing institutional distribution. The June 1 session saw price push back toward the upper boundary of this range near $230, suggesting buyers are re-engaging and a breakout is in motion. A decisive close above $230 would complete the flag and project a measured move well above current levels.
NVDA – Daily Chart
#2 Price above MAs: NVDA is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages — a configuration that keeps the intermediate and long-term trend firmly bullish. Beyond directional bias, these averages serve a functional role: they act as dynamic support zones where institutional buyers have historically stepped in on pullbacks. As long as price remains above both, the path of least resistance stays to the upside.
#3 Bullish Stochastic: On the daily chart, the %K line has crossed above %D while emerging from oversold territory — a combination that carries more weight than a crossover in isolation. A crossover in neutral territory can be noise; one that fires from an oversold base signals that selling pressure has been wrung out and fresh buying is stepping in. The weekly stochastic echoes this setup, adding a longer-duration tailwind and suggesting the momentum shift isn’t just a short-term bounce but a potential trend-level inflection.
#4 Bullish ADX: The ADX configuration is constructive on two levels. First, the +DI line is running above –DI, confirming that directional control belongs to buyers. Second — and more telling — the ADX line itself is turning higher from a low base and has crossed above –DI. Since ADX measures trend strength irrespective of direction, this upturn signals that a new trending move is not only forming but accelerating. Early-stage ADX rises tend to precede the strongest legs of a trend, which makes this setup particularly actionable.
#5 Above Support Area: On the weekly chart, NVDA has reclaimed and is holding above a former resistance level at approximately $209.66 (marked by the pink dotted line) — a classic resistance-turned-support flip that validates the prior breakout. This zone now serves as a structural floor. Adding to the bullish case, price also sits above both the 50-week and 200-week SMAs, confirming that the longer-term trend structure remains intact and buyers retain control across multiple timeframes.
NVDA – Weekly Chart
#6 Bullish MACD: The weekly MACD line has crossed above its signal line, and the histogram has flipped positive — reflecting a shift where short-term momentum is now outpacing its longer-term average. Weekly MACD crossovers are slower to trigger than daily ones, which makes them higher-conviction signals. This crossover suggests accumulation is broadening and the path of least resistance over the coming weeks tilts higher.
#7 RSI Above 50 and Rising: The weekly RSI sits above 50 and is trending higher — a two-part bullish signal. Holding above the 50 midline confirms that average gains are structurally outweighing average losses, while the rising trajectory rules out a stalling or distribution read. RSI in the mid-60s with an upward slope is characteristic of early- to mid-stage uptrends — strong enough to confirm momentum, but not yet near overbought extremes that would signal exhaustion.
Risks to Consider
Even strong setups can fail, especially in a high-momentum AI infrastructure name like NVIDIA. A few things could knock the stock off course:
- A breakdown back below the bull flag breakout level on heavy volume
- Negative company-specific news or broader market weakness — markets have already seen some rotation in recent sessions out of semiconductor hardware and into AI software applications
- Tighter China export controls — the May 31, 2026 Commerce guidance closed a loophole for Chinese firms’ overseas subsidiaries, and NVIDIA’s China AI chip share has already declined to roughly 50% amid domestic competition from Huawei’s Ascend line
- Competition risk — AMD’s MI-series GPUs continue to improve, and hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) are increasingly developing custom ASICs that could take share over time
- AI capex digestion — any sign that hyperscaler ROI timelines are slipping could prompt a pause in spending, even with management framing that “profitable AI is here”
- Geopolitical and smuggling risk — Bloomberg reporting on suspected NVIDIA chip smuggling into China via Japan could trigger tougher regulatory clampdowns from the U.S. government
- Valuation premium — at a $5T+ market cap, NVDA carries little margin for execution slippage; any earnings miss or guidance cut would land harder than at smaller valuations
- Execution risk on Vera Rubin — any delay in the volume ramp or supply chain hiccup would meaningfully impact the late-2026 / 2027 setup that’s underwriting the post-Blackwell thesis
The Bottom Line
NVDA is breaking out of a tight bull flag on the daily chart while holding cleanly above a resistance-turned-support level on the weekly — a dual-timeframe technical setup that historically signals the start of a sustained move higher.
The fundamental story underneath the chart is just as strong: a record Q1 FY2027 revenue print of $81.6 billion (+85% YoY), an $80 billion buyback floor paired with a 2,400% dividend hike, and a brand-new consumer AI PC TAM unlocked via RTX Spark.
Combine that with multiple commercial and regulatory catalysts staggered through year-end — the June 4 BofA tech conference, Q2 FY2027 earnings on August 26, Vera Rubin volume ramps, and the initial wave of RTX Spark PCs — and NVDA looks like one of the more compelling risk-reward setups on the board right now.
If this is a trade you want to get in on, here’s how we’d play it. Below you’ll find our exact entry level, both price targets that imply 15%–26% potential upside, and the stop-loss we’re using to manage the downside.
Recommended Trade Setup
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Buy Level | Above approximately $230.00 |
| Price Target 1 | $265.00 — Potential upside: 15% |
| Price Target 2 | $290.00 — Potential upside: 26% |
| Timeframe | Next 4–6 months |
| Stop-Loss | $211.00 on a closing basis |
| Trade Invalidation | Void if price hits stop-loss before entry triggers |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
For a risk of approximately $19.00 per share, the target rewards are about $35.00 and $60.00 per share. That makes this roughly a 1:2 and 1:3 risk-reward trade. In other words, the setup offers nearly 2x to 3x more potential upside than downside.
Note on Trade Invalidation: This recommendation remains active as long as the underlying technical setup is intact. If the stock declines to or below the stop-loss level before the buy level is triggered, the trade is automatically invalidated — the support structure that underpins the thesis has broken down, and the setup no longer offers a favorable risk-reward entry.
Happy Trading!
Tara and Greg