One of the most interesting “smart money” trades we came across yesterday was with FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX).
If you’re new here, a “smart money” trade is a relatively large volume option trade most likely made by a pro trader. The idea is to analyze unusual options activity, identify an interesting “smart money” trade, and then make our best guess as to:
- Which direction the trader thinks the stock is headed
- How much they think it will rise (or fall), and
- In what time frame this will all happen.
If we like what we see after putting all these pieces together, we can mimic the “smart money” trade (on a smaller scale), and potentially ride alongside our pro trader to profits. With all this in mind…
A Pro Trader Just Bet $3,365,550 that FDX Will Continue to Climb in the Next 3 Weeks
On Friday, June 24, 2022, a pro trader seems to have bought 1,662 of the July 15, 2022, $230 call options on FDX for $20.25 per contract. Her outlay was $3,365,550.
The trade’s breakeven point is at $250.25, meaning that FDX needs to rise to $250.25 for the call option trade to break even. This is a nearly 3% upside from the stock’s previous close of $243.24. And then for every $1 the stock rises above $250.25, our “smart money” trader will make $166,200!
On analyzing the daily chart of FDX, the stock seems to have broken out of a falling wedge pattern (marked as blue color lines). This breakout level would now act as a strong support area. The stock is also trading above gap support, which is marked as a pink color dotted line. All this makes it likely that our pro trader is bullish on FDX.
This lends credence to our conclusion that the pro bought these call options, as opposed to selling them.
If you agree and would like to mimic this trade, here’s how:
Buy to open the July 15, 2022, $230 call options on FDX for $20.25 per contract or better.
As always, depending on your risk appetite, do remember to set a stop-loss for the options trade to avoid significant losses.
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