One of the most interesting “smart money” trades we came across yesterday was with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN).
If you’re new here, a “smart money” trade is a relatively large volume option trade most likely made by a pro trader. The idea is to analyze unusual options activity, identify an interesting “smart money” trade, and then make our best guess as to:
- Which direction the trader thinks the stock is headed
- How much they think it will rise (or fall), and
- In what time frame this will all happen.
If we like what we see after putting all these pieces together, we can mimic the “smart money” trade (on a smaller scale), and potentially ride alongside our pro trader to profits. With all this in mind…
A Pro Trader Just Bet $1,168,940 that AMZN will Stay Bearish For the Next 4 Months
On Thursday, June 16, 2022, a pro trader seems to have bought 554 of the October 21, 2022, $120 put options on AMZN for $21.10 per contract. Her outlay was $1,168,940.
The trade’s breakeven point is at $98.90, meaning that AMZN needs to decline to $98.90 for the put option trade to break even. This is a nearly 5% downside from the stock’s previous close of $103.66. And then for every $1 the stock falls below $98.90, our “smart money” trader will make $55,400!
On analyzing the chart of AMZN, the stock seems to have broken down from a downtrend channel (marked as blue color lines). It is also currently trading below a resistance area (marked as a pink color dotted line). All this makes it likely our pro trader is bearish on AMZN.
This lends credence to our conclusion that the pro bought these put options, as opposed to selling them.
If you agree and would like to mimic this trade, here’s how:
Buy to open the October 21, 2022, $120 put options on AMZN for $21.10 per contract or better.
As always, depending on your risk appetite, do remember to set a stop-loss for the options trade to avoid significant losses.
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