This Kroger (KR) Trade Targets a 100% Return in About Two Months

Stocks stumbled a little on Friday after the big gains on Thursday. All four of the main indices finished lower, but the big three finished well off the lows of the day. The Russell took the worst loss at 1.25% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.0% as the second worst performer. The S&P fell 0.66% and the Dow declined 0.34%. The Dow actually managed to move in to positive territory for a brief time late in the day.

Only two of the 10 main sectors managed to gain ground on Friday—utilities and healthcare. Both sectors finished with gains of 0.12%.

There were three sectors with losses greater than 1.0% and they were led by the tech sector which lost 1.13%.

The communication services sector fell 1.12% and the energy sector dropped 1.10% to round out the three.

After three straight days of positive skews over 100, my scans came back down to Earth.

There were 12 names on the bullish list and nine on the bearish list for a positive reading of three.

Because of the huge positive readings over the previous three days, the barometer remained elevated. The final reading on Friday was 78.2 after two straight days over 100.

After three straight bullish trade ideas and five out of the last six, I have a bearish idea for you today. The subject of today’s idea is Kroger (NYSE: KR). The company’s fundamental readings are simply average with an EPS rating of 49 and an SMR rating of a C. Both earnings and sales declined slightly in the most recent quarterly report.

The stock has been trending lower over the last five months and a trend channel has formed that defines the cycles within the overall trend. The stock hit the upper rail of the channel this past week and turned lower on Thursday and Friday. The daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory and they made a bearish crossover on Friday.

Buy to open the October 24-strike puts on KR at $1.85 or better. These options expire on October 18. In order for these options to double the stock will need to fall to $20.30. The lower rail of the channel should be down to this area within the next week or so. I suggest a target gain of 100% with a stop at $23.85.

— Rick Pendergraft

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Rick Pendergraft, Trades Of The Day

Rick Pendergraft has been studying, trading, analyzing and writing about the investment markets for over 30 years. He has worked for some of the largest financial publishers in the world and he has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times and the Washington Post. In addition, he has been interviewed on Bloomberg, CNBC and Fox Business News. Rick's analysis process includes fundamental, sentiment and technical analysis.