This Trade Targets a Potential 100% Return by March 19

Option Trade Of The Day: CF Industries Holdings

CF Industries Holdings manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizers and other nitrogen products worldwide. The company operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, Other, and Phosphate segments.

Its principal nitrogen fertilizer products include ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate.

[hana-code-insert name=’adsense-article’ /]The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

The chart for CF shows how the stock recently pulled back to its 50-day moving average, something it has done on several occasions over the last seven months.

Each time it has dropped down to the 50-day, it has used the trendline as support.

We also see that the stochastic readings just made a bullish crossover like it did in mid-November, late August and early August.

In was of these instances, the stock jumped sharply.

Another factor in this trade idea is the sentiment. The sentiment toward CF hit an extreme low on January 17 with a reading that is among the lowest five readings of the past year. The sentiment was also extremely low in mid-November, mid-August and in early June and in each of those instances, the stock rallied over the next month. The combination of the chart set up and the sentiment make me think CF is setting up for another bullish run over the next month or two.

Buy to open the Mar18 37.50 strike calls on CF at $4.50 or better. These options will expire on March 16. With the stock closing at $40.84, these options are $3.34 in the money, but I chose them because the 50-day is above the strike price, so it makes them a little less risky. For these options to double, the stock will need to rally by 13.8%, but the rallies in June, August and November were all greater than 20%. I would target a gain of 100% on the trade and I would use $38.50 as a stop-loss point.

— Rick Pendergraft

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Rick Pendergraft, Trades Of The Day

Rick Pendergraft has been studying, trading, analyzing and writing about the investment markets for over 30 years. He has worked for some of the largest financial publishers in the world and he has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times and the Washington Post. In addition, he has been interviewed on Bloomberg, CNBC and Fox Business News. Rick's analysis process includes fundamental, sentiment and technical analysis.