This Trade Targets a 100% Return by mid-February

Stocks came under some selling pressure on Monday and all four of the main indices fell as a result. The Nasdaq took the worst hit at -0.67% and it was followed closely by the Dow which fell 0.64%.

The S&P dropped 0.58% and the Russell took the smallest loss at 0.29%.

All 10 of the main sectors fell on the day, but the size of the losses varied greatly. The utilities sector took the smallest loss at 0.02%. The materials sector fell 0.31% and that was the second smallest loss.

The communication services sector suffered the biggest loss at 1.04% and the consumer discretionary sector finished with the second worst drop at 0.64%.

My scans remain locked in on the bearish side and last night showed 43 names on the bearish list and only seven on the bullish side.

The barometer did move up a little as the difference between the two lists was smaller than the previous few days.

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The final reading was -45.2 after a reading of -52.8 on Friday.

After four straight bearish trade ideas I was looking for a bullish one, but with only seven stocks to choose from, it didn’t happen. Instead I have another bearish idea and this one is on Chewy Inc. (NYSE: CHWY). The online pet supply company appeared on the bearish list and its fundamentals are pretty bad. The EPS rating is a 19 and it doesn’t have an SMR rating because it has been losing money. You can’t calculate an ROE when the company is losing money.

I wrote an article about Chewy recently and I stated that I am a customer and love the convenience, but the stock has left a lot to be desired. If we connect the closing highs from June and September we get a downward sloped trend line. That trend line is just below $30 at this time and the stock is just below $29. The stock is also overbought based on the daily stochastic readings and they made a bearish crossover last night.

Buy to open the February 30-strike puts on CHWY at $2.90 or better. These options expire on February 21. In order for these options to double the stock will need to drop to $24.20. The stock seems to have some support in the $22 area, but it won’t have to get that low for these options to double. I suggest a target gain of 100% with a stop at $30.25.

— Rick Pendergraft

 

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Rick Pendergraft, Trades Of The Day

Rick Pendergraft has been studying, trading, analyzing and writing about the investment markets for over 30 years. He has worked for some of the largest financial publishers in the world and he has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times and the Washington Post. In addition, he has been interviewed on Bloomberg, CNBC and Fox Business News. Rick's analysis process includes fundamental, sentiment and technical analysis.