🚨 Trade Updates
1) United States Antimony (NYSE: UAMY) — Our recommended buy level has now been triggered. Those who haven’t yet entered a position, or who are looking to add, may do so now. Keep strict stop losses in place as outlined.
2) MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) — We first recommended MARA on April 6. The stock is now approaching our first price target. With recent news catalysts helping to strengthen the technical picture, the stock appears increasingly well-positioned for a broader breakout.
For traders who are not yet in the MARA trade, current levels may still offer a reasonable entry, using the original stop-loss as your guide. We may update this trade if/when the breakout happens.
Bottom line: UAMY has now officially triggered, and MARA is getting very close to a possible next leg higher. In both cases, discipline still matters — respect your stops.
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) just had a powerful breakout, and this move may not be over yet.
As we’ll show you just ahead, the combination of a transformational acquisition, new domestic magnet production, and a fresh technical breakout makes USAR one of the more interesting setups on the board. Here’s what’s going on…
The Themes Behind the Move
USA Rare Earth is trying to build a domestic rare-earth supply chain from the ground up. In plain English, it wants to mine, process, and eventually turn critical minerals into finished magnets here in the U.S. — which matters because those materials are used in things like EV motors, defense systems, robotics, and other high-priority technologies.
USAR’s latest move doesn’t appear to be about one isolated headline. Instead, traders seem to be reacting to a broader set of developments that are making the story look much bigger — and much more strategic — than it did just a few months ago.
| Theme / Catalyst | What Happened | Why Traders Care |
|---|---|---|
| Serra Verde acquisition | On April 20, USAR announced a $2.8 billion deal to acquire Serra Verde in Brazil, giving it ownership of the only scaled producer of all four magnetic rare earths outside Asia. The deal includes a 15-year U.S. government-backed offtake agreement, which helps put a floor under pricing and makes future revenue look a lot more real. | That’s the kind of deal that can completely change how the market values the company, shifting it from domestic explorer to global producer. |
| Stillwater magnet line commissioning | In late April, the company commissioned Phase 1a of its commercial magnet line in Stillwater, Oklahoma. This marks the company’s move from development into active production. By turning rare earth oxides into finished permanent magnets inside the U.S., USAR is trying to capture the most valuable part of the supply chain and position itself for demand tied to EVs, defense systems, and AI robotics. | That matters because it moves USAR closer to becoming a true “mine-to-magnet” story rather than just a raw-material supplier. |
| U.S. government support | USAR previously lined up a $1.6 billion U.S. government funding agreement tied to its domestic supply-chain buildout, alongside major outside capital. | That helps de-risk the capital side of the story and signals that Washington views this as strategically important. |
| China export restrictions | As Beijing tightens export controls on rare earth processing, the push to build domestic supply has gone from an economic issue to a national security priority. | That makes domestic and Western rare-earth supply chains much more valuable than they looked before. |
| Institutional validation | BlackRock disclosed a 5.9% passive stake in late April. | That helps reinforce the idea that larger institutional investors are starting to buy into the Western supply-chain thesis. |
| Analyst momentum | Of the 9 analysts covering USAR with 12-month price targets, the average target sits at $34.20, which implies about 31.7% upside from the recent price of $25.97. | That suggests Wall Street still sees meaningful upside ahead, even after the stock’s recent move. |
| Upcoming triggers | Traders are watching Q1 earnings in mid-May. They’ll look for the first revenue contributions from the Stillwater plant and Serra Verde deal progress. | If execution keeps improving, the stock could have more catalysts ahead to support the breakout. |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
Put it all together, and USAR is looking less like a speculative critical-minerals concept stock and more like an emerging strategic supply-chain story with real assets, real funding support, and growing institutional interest behind it.
The story may be getting stronger, but the chart is what could determine whether this move has more room to run in the near term. Here are the bullish technical signals traders should be watching now.
Bullish Technical Signals
#1 Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Breakout: The daily chart reveals USAR has broken out of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, which is characterized by converging trendlines (descending highs, ascending lows) that reflects a period of price compression and market indecision. This consolidation has now resolved to the upside, consistent with the prevailing trend. Breakouts of this nature tend to carry the most conviction when accompanied by expanding volume, which serves as confirmation that institutional participation is driving and not just following the move.
USAR – Daily Chart
#2 Price above MAs: USAR is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, a configuration that signals broad-based bullish control across short- and long-term timeframes. Beyond trend direction, these averages now serve as dynamic support levels – a floor that buyers have historically defended. Price holding above both MAs reinforces the strength of the current move rather than treating it as a one-day outlier.
#3 Bullish ADX: The Directional Movement system presents a constructive setup: +DI is above -DI, confirming that buyers are currently dictating trend direction. More notably, the ADX line has risen from below the -DI and is now approaching the +DI. This sequence signals an accelerating momentum. This progression suggests the uptrend is gaining structural strength, not fading.
#4 Bullish Aroon: On the daily chart, the Aroon Up (orange) sits above 70 while Aroon Down (blue) is below 30. This spread defines a strong, well-established uptrend. At these extremes, the stock is consistently registering new highs within its lookback window while sellers remain largely inactive. This isn’t early-stage momentum; it reflects a trend with durability.
#5 Above Support Area: The weekly chart shows USAR reclaiming a key level, marked by the pink dotted line, that previously acted as resistance and has now flipped to support. This indicates that prior sellers who defined that ceiling are now the buyers defending the floor. Combined with price holding above the 50-week SMA, the weight of evidence on the weekly timeframe favors continued upside.
USAR – Weekly Chart
#6 MACD Above Signal Line: On the weekly chart, the MACD line (blue) has crossed above the signal line (orange) – a bullish crossover indicating that short-term momentum is now outpacing long-term momentum. This shift reflects rising buying pressure at the macro level. On a weekly timeframe, MACD crossovers carry added significance: they tend to precede sustained directional moves rather than short-lived bounces, strengthening the case for a longer-duration long.
#7 %K above %D: The weekly Stochastic shows %K (blue) crossing above %D (orange) while recovering from oversold territory. This is a dual-confirmation signal. The oversold origin indicates that prior selling pressure has been exhausted, not merely paused. The crossover from that level signals buyers stepping in with conviction, implying a potential shift in long-term momentum from distribution to accumulation.
Recommended Trade Setup
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Buy Level | Above approximately $26.90 |
| Price Target 1 | $35.00 Potential upside: 30% |
| Price Target 2 | $42.00 Potential upside: 56% |
| Timeframe | Next 3–6 months |
| Stop-Loss | $22.00 on a closing basis |
If needed, swipe or scroll sideways to view the full table.
For a risk of approximately $4.90 per share, the target rewards are about $8.10 and $15.10 per share. That makes this roughly a 1:2 and 1:3 risk-reward trade. In other words, the setup offers nearly 2x to 3x more potential upside than downside.
Risks to Consider
Even strong setups can fail, especially in a small-cap critical-minerals name like USAR. A few things could knock the stock off course:
- A breakdown back below the symmetrical triangle pattern on heavy volume
- Negative company-specific news or broader market weakness that pressures small-cap materials and mining names
- Massive dilution tied to the Serra Verde acquisition, which is expected to roughly double the share count
- Execution risk around integrating a Brazilian mine while also ramping the Stillwater magnet plant in Oklahoma
- Commodity-price volatility, especially if China pushes more supply into the market and pressures rare-earth pricing
- Fresh regulatory or geopolitical changes that alter the rare-earth supply-chain story
The counterpoint is that USAR’s long-term government-backed offtake agreement includes price floors, which may help protect the story against some of the worst-case pricing pressure. That gives the company at least some buffer if the market turns more competitive than expected.
Happy Trading!
Tara and Greg