I woke up Saturday to the kind of headline that makes your stomach drop.
The United States and Israel had just launched coordinated military strikes on Iran. Reports confirmed the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Tragically, it’s been reported that a girls’ elementary school was also hit and over 100 students were killed.
Iran retaliated with missile attacks on U.S. bases and targeted oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. President Trump warned of “unprecedented force” if escalation continues. Oil markets reacted immediately overseas. By the time U.S. equities reopen this morning, the energy trade will be front and center.
Before we talk about trades, I need to say something that may not be popular.
I’m a proud American, but I’m frustrated that we’re constantly getting involved in conflicts overseas. I’m deeply suspicious of the motives behind many of these interventions. And I’m saddened that innocent people suffer — on all sides — because of decisions made by powerful governments and political leaders far removed from the consequences.
That’s the moral reality.
So why am I even talking about a potential trade built around our attack on Iran? Because markets will move whether we like it or not. They don’t operate on moral preference — they operate on supply, risk, and fear.
There’s a difference between exploiting suffering and responding to reality. If I take a trade here, it won’t be because I’m rooting for escalation. It’ll be a small, defined-risk position that acknowledges the world as it is — not as I wish it were.
For example, the “Venezuela Chaos Trade” we placed in January wasn’t a bet on bombs. It was a structured options position on an energy company responding to geopolitical risk. And it was sized as a lottery ticket — fully acknowledging it could go to zero.
Anyone who closed out that trade on Friday had the opportunity to lock in a 443% gain in 53 days. Little did I know that hours later, another headline would hit that could significantly reprice energy markets. If CVX pushes toward $200 on this new Iran escalation — which is entirely possible — anyone still in our March $170 call position could be staring at gains north of 900%.
But as tempting as it is to jump into a new trade right now, I’m not rushing into anything new at the market open. After-hours and pre-market prices are notoriously unreliable. Spreads widen, liquidity dries up, and emotion dominates.
What I Need to See Before Entering Any New Trade
If CVX gaps significantly higher — early indications suggest $200 is possible — I’m not chasing it blindly. I want confirmation. Here’s what I’ll be watching:
| Market Signal | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Opening Price & First 30–60 Minutes | Gap-ups often fade. I want to see whether buyers hold control after the initial volatility settles. |
| Oil Futures Follow-Through | If crude gives back gains quickly, the energy trade could unwind just as fast. |
| Fresh Escalation or De-Escalation Headlines | Momentum depends on narrative. A shift in tone could change positioning instantly. |
| Volume Confirmation | Real institutional participation matters. Thin, emotional buying is not sustainable. |
| Pullback Entry Opportunity | I prefer entering on weakness, not at the peak of a fear-driven spike. |
In other words, I will not chase a gap-up into the open. Discipline matters even more when emotions are running high.
The Trade I’m Considering (If Conditions Align)
If the tape confirms strength beyond the initial shock — not just a one-hour panic bid — I would look at longer-dated call options. Mostly likely June expiration or later. The same framework that just offered us that 400%+ return in less than 60 days:
- Defined risk.
- Controlled size.
- Time for the thesis to develop.
- No need to predict today’s exact print.
If the Iran situation truly escalates, it’s not a one-day story. It’s a multi-week — and possibly multi-month — narrative. But only if the market confirms.
I’ll be paying attention today. If I like the setup, I’ll publish a full trade alert. Stay tuned.
Good trading,
Greg Patrick
P.S. Trades like the Venezuela setup don’t come around often. But when they do, you’ve got a relatively narrow window of opportunity to take advantage. If you value timely, defined-risk ideas that can occasionally deliver life-changing returns, make sure you stay subscribed. We’ll alert you the moment the market confirms the next opportunity.