Nearly 203 million Americans shopped from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
U.S. consumers shelled out $44.2 billion in that five-day stretch, according to Adobe. That’s up 7.7% from last year.
All told, the NRF expects us to spend a record $1 trillion this holiday shopping season – the first time ever in 13 digits.
Regular readers know that my beat is following money flows. I seek where capital is moving into stocks (and out) in the biggest way.
That means keeping tabs on what the biggest investors on Earth are doing with their money.
But institutional order flows are not the only big money worth watching. This time of year, consumers become some of the biggest “whales” in the market.
And just like institutional flows, this tidal wave of spending creates winners and losers among retailers.
Today, let’s look at the data for the top three retail stocks on my radar.
The strongest opportunities may surprise you…
The Best of the Big 3
Walmart (WMT) is the undisputed king of retail. Last year it moved nearly $570 billion in global revenue through its namesake stores and Sam’s Clubs.
Walmart knows how to win at retail – and the stock is starting to reflect it.
With a Quantum Score of 88.5, WMT rates a buy. That score factors in quantitative intelligence analyzing the business’s fundamentals, the stock’s technical trading strength, and how much Big Money is buying or selling. The optimal score for buying is 85 and up.
Walmart’s fundamentals are solid at 77. Sales and earnings are expected to grow around 5% this fiscal year, which doesn’t sound thrilling. Even a few percentage points at Walmart’s size is a ton of money, but its growth ceiling is naturally lower compared to smaller retailers.
More important, the stock woke up.
Walmart reported strong earnings and raised guidance a week before Thanksgiving, and shares have been on the move. The holiday season is “off to a pretty good start,” according to CFO John David Rainey.
WMT shares jumped nearly 15% in three weeks. That surge blasted the Technical Score from under 60 to 96.7.
Big Money has jumped in as well. My Quantum Edge system picked up two new buy signals just last week. Those green bars tell us there was unusual buying in a stock – the hallmark of institutions at work.
I’d love a slightly higher Fundamental Score. But the strong technicals and fresh Big Money signals mean WMT looks ready for more upside.
Amazon.com (AMZN) brought in $268 billion in retail sales last year – plus billions more from AWS, advertising, and other businesses.
But its 69.1 Quantum Score tells the story. Not terrible, but also just not compelling.
The fundamentals match Walmart’s with a score of 77, but the technicals do not at 63.6. AMZN is down 8% this month while WMT is up double digits. Big Money is more interested in Walmart right now.
Costco (COST), the third-largest retailer, booked $250 billion in sales last year. The stores are loved by millions, but we can’t say the same for the stock.
COST is the lowest rated by far with a Quantum Score of 48.3. Here again, the fundamentals are similar with a 75 rating, but the technicals are poor at 29.4. Big Money hasn’t shown up in six months.
Great companies aren’t always great stocks. COST simply isn’t attracting the kind of demand that moves shares higher.
The Stock Outranking Them All
Unless you’re 17 years old (or have a teenager and two kids in college like I do), Urban Outfitters (URBN) probably isn’t on your holiday shopping list. Regardless, the stock is one of the strongest names in retail.
URBN’s brands – Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, Free People, Terrain, and more – cater to trend-driven teens and young adults who buy everything from edgy fashion to quirky home décor to lifestyle accessories.
URBN also outranks Walmart, Amazon, Costco, and most other related stocks in my Quantum Edge system.
URBN’s 91.1 Quantum Score puts it squarely in my target buy zone of 85 and above. The fundamentals are solid, scoring higher than the largest retailers. Earnings are expected to grow 30% this fiscal year with sales projected to increase 11%.
The real fireworks came after the latest earnings report. Sales rose across all divisions. Profits beat expectations. Guidance was solid with the company expecting sales growth up near 10%, margin expansion, and another record quarter and year.
The stock exploded more than 20% in just two weeks. URBN has consolidated between $75 and $80 over the last seven trading days, but Big Money is still working behind the scenes.
My system picked up three Big Money buy signals since earnings. One on the day before Thanksgiving right after results were released, and two more after the holiday last Monday and Tuesday.
URBN is riding a wave of better-than-expected sales, rising profits, and accelerating brand momentum. Shares may take a breather after the surge, but the data strongly suggests more gains ahead.
And URBN isn’t the only fashion stock catching Big Money’s eye. Ralph Lauren (RL), the iconic preppy brand, has also been on the move. Big Money flashed three new buy signals right before Thanksgiving.
RL’s Quantum Score matches Walmart’s at 88.5, and the fundamentals also align at 77. But RL has a much higher technical rating at 96.7, thanks to a near-doubling of the stock since early April.
Consumers are unleashing a trillion-dollar wave of spending – and Big Money is targeting select retailers right now. Like URBN.
To find the winners, follow the data and follow the flows. They will lead you to the profits.
Talk soon,
Jason Bodner
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Source: TradeSmith