Once upon a time, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) had nine bullish analysts on its side claiming it was a stock to buy.
Today, there are only two tracked by FactSet who are willing to stand by that assessment after JMP Securities downgraded the stock’s performance. After management blindsided investors twice in as many months, the stock is 93% off its intraday highs…
And I think it can go lower.
On Friday, Upstart Holdings, the cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform, disclosed preliminary second-quarter results that fell below their previous guidance. The stock dropped more than 20% that day in early trading.
At issue was a negative impact on revenue driven by the move to convert loans on its balance sheet into cash in the second quarter.
This is starting to become a pattern. Back in May, investors were caught flat-footed when management issued an earnings warning, and the stock dropped 55%. That’s twice in as many months that management has blindsided investors.
The stock is currently trading 93.32% off its October 2021 intraday high. That’s a huge decline, and I think it can go lower, but only after bargain hunters try and make a quick profit from a rebound.
If shares of UPST trade back up to $31.00, by July 15, 2022, I like buying the UPST August 19, 2022 $25/$22.50 Put Spread for $1.15 or less. Plan on exiting the position at a 100% profit or if shares of UPST close above $33.00.
I’m also watching AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC), the movie exhibition company with approximately 950 theatres and 10,500 screens across the globe.
Movie theatre chains like MAC got absolutely hammered during COVID-19 lockdowns, but now, people are starting to head back to the movies.
Even though movie attendance is far lower than before COVID, it’s on the mend, and all AMC has to do is beat estimates to satisfy investors and the market.
Speaking of estimates, the company is scheduled to report Q2/2022 results on Thursday August 4.
We could see many traders moving into shares of AMC, prior to the release of Q2 results, in hopes of profiting from a quick earnings pop.
I think we’re already starting to see that trade building. Shares of AMC were up more than 4% in early Friday trading and up more than 36% off the June lows.
At this point, I like buying the AMC August 19, 2022 $16/$17 Call Spread for $0.35 or less. Plan on exiting the AMC August 19, 2022 $16/$17 Call Spread for a 100% profit or if shares of AMV close below $13.50.
Cheers,
— Shah
Source: Total Wealth