One of the most interesting “smart money” trades we came across yesterday was with iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT).
If you’re new here, a “smart money” trade is a relatively large volume option trade most likely made by a pro trader. The idea is to analyze unusual options activity, identify an interesting “smart money” trade, and then make our best guess as to:
- Which direction the trader thinks the stock is headed
- How much they think it will rise (or fall), and
- In what time frame this will all happen.
If we like what we see after putting all these pieces together, we can mimic the “smart money” trade (on a smaller scale), and potentially ride alongside our pro trader to profits. With all this in mind…
A Pro Trader Just Bet $2,475,000 that TLT will Stay Bearish For the Next 8 Weeks
On Tuesday, April 19, 2022, a pro trader seems to have bought 3,000 of the June 17, 2022, $125 put options on TLT for $8.25 per contract. His outlay was $2,475,000.
TLT – Option Trade
The trade’s breakeven point is at $116.75, meaning that TLT needs to decline to $116.75 for the put option trade to break even. This is a nearly 2% downside from the stock’s previous close of $ 119.25. And then for every $1 the stock falls below $116.75, our “smart money” trader will make $300,000!
TLT – Daily Chart
On analyzing the chart of TLT, the stock seems to have broken down from a downtrend channel (marked as blue color lines). This makes it likely our pro trader is bearish on TLT.
This lends credence to our conclusion that the pro bought these put options, as opposed to selling them.
If you agree and would like to mimic this trade, here’s how:
Buy to open the June 17, 2022, $125 put options on TLT for $8.25 per contract or better.
As always, depending on your risk appetite, do remember to set a stop-loss for the options trade to avoid significant losses.
Happy Trading!
— Trades of The Day Research Team
This is the #1 Stock to Buy for the AI Tidal Wave [sponsor]Marc Chaikin warned people about NVDA before its 2023 bull run - now he's naming his next pick or the AI tidal wave. Learn more here.