One of the most interesting “smart money” trades we came across yesterday was with The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS).
If you’re new here, a “smart money” trade is a relatively large volume option trade most likely made by a pro trader. The idea is to analyze unusual options activity, identify an interesting “smart money” trade, and then make our best guess as to:
- Which direction the trader thinks the stock is headed
- How much they think it will rise (or fall), and
- In what time frame this will all happen.
If we like what we see after putting all these pieces together, we can mimic the “smart money” trade (on a smaller scale), and potentially ride alongside our pro trader to profits. With all this in mind…
A Pro Trader Just Bet $2,880,000 that MOS Will Continue to Climb in the Next 10 Months
On Thursday, March 10, 2022, a pro trader seems to have bought 3,000 of the January 20, 2023, $70 call options on MOS for $9.60 per contract. Her outlay was $2,880,000.
MOS – Option Trade
The trade’s breakeven point is at $79.60, meaning that MOS needs to rise to $79.60 for the call option trade to break even. This is a nearly 28% upside from the stock’s previous close of $62.19. And then for every $1 the stock rises above $79.60, our “smart money” trader will make $300,000!
MOS – Daily Chart
On analyzing the daily chart of MOS, the stock seems to have broken out of an upward sloping trend channel (marked as blue color lines). This breakout level would now act as a strong support area. This makes it likely that our pro trader is bullish on MOS.
This lends credence to our conclusion that the pro bought these call options, as opposed to selling them.
If you agree and would like to mimic this trade, here’s how:
Buy to open the January 20, 2023, $70 call options on MOS for $9.60 or better.
As always, depending on your risk appetite, do remember to set a stop-loss for the options trade to avoid significant losses.
Happy Trading!
— Trades of The Day Research Team
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