One of the most interesting “smart money” trades we came across yesterday was with Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F).
If you’re new here, a “smart money” trade is a relatively large volume option trade most likely made by a pro trader. The idea is to analyze unusual options activity, identify an interesting “smart money” trade, and then make our best guess as to:
- Which direction the trader thinks the stock is headed
- How much they think it will rise (or fall), and
- In what time frame this will all happen.
If we like what we see after putting all these pieces together, we can mimic the “smart money” trade (on a smaller scale), and potentially ride alongside our pro trader to profits. With all this in mind…
A Pro Trader Just Bet $11,120,000 that F Will Continue to Climb in the Next 4 Weeks
On Wednesday, November 17, 2021, a pro trader seems to have bought 16,000 of the December 17, 2021, $13 call options on F for $6.95 per contract. His outlay was $11,120,000.
F – Option Trade
The trade’s breakeven point is at $19.95, meaning that F needed to rise to $19.95 for the call option trade to break even. This is near the stock’s previous close of $19.96. And then for every $1 the stock rises above $19.95, our “smart money” trader will make $1,600,000!
On analyzing the daily chart of F, the stock seems to have broken out of a downward sloping trend channel (marked as blue color lines). This breakout level would now act as a support area. The stock is also trading above a strong support area, which is marked as a purple color dotted line. All this makes it likely that our pro trader is bullish on F.
F – Daily Chart
This lends credence to our conclusion that the pro bought these call options, as opposed to selling them.
If you agree and would like to mimic this trade, here’s how:
Buy to open the December 17, 2021, $13 call options on F for $6.95 or better.
As always, depending on your risk appetite, do remember to set a stop-loss for the options trade to avoid significant losses.
Happy Trading!
— Trades of The Day Research Team
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