One of the most interesting “smart money” trades we came across yesterday was with Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM).
If you’re new here, a “smart money” trade is a relatively large volume option trade most likely made by a pro trader. The idea is to analyze unusual options activity, identify an interesting “smart money” trade, and then make our best guess as to:
- Which direction the trader thinks the stock is headed
- How much they think it will rise (or fall), and
- In what time frame this will all happen.
If we like what we see after putting all these pieces together, we can mimic the “smart money” trade (on a smaller scale), and potentially ride alongside our pro trader to profits. With all this in mind…
A Pro Trader Just Bet $2,220,000 that AFRM Will Continue to Climb in the Next ONE Week
On Thursday, October 07, 2021, a pro trader seems to have bought 1,000 of the October 15, 2021, $115 call options on AFRM for $22.20 per share. Her outlay was $2,220,000.
The trade’s breakeven point is at $137.20, meaning that AFRM needs to rise to $137.20 for the call option trade to break even. This is a nearly 2.5% return from the stock’s previous close of $133.90. And then for every $1 the stock rises above $137.20, our “smart money” trader will make $100,000!
On analyzing the daily chart of AFRM, the stock seems to have broken out of a flag pattern (marked as pink color lines). This breakout level, at around $115, would now act as a strong support area. The stock is also trading above a gap support area (marked as a blue color dotted line), which would now act as an additional level of support for the stock. All this makes it likely our pro trader is bullish on AFRM.
This lends credence to our conclusion that the pro bought these call options, as opposed to selling them.
If you agree and would like to mimic this trade, here’s how:
Buy to open the October 15, 2021, $115 call options on AFRM for $22.20 or better.
As always, depending on your risk appetite, do remember to set a stop-loss for the options trade to avoid significant losses.
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