One of the most interesting “smart money” trades we came across yesterday was with SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE: XOP).
If you’re new here, a “smart money” trade is a relatively large volume option trade most likely made by a pro trader. The idea is to analyze unusual options activity, identify an interesting “smart money” trade, and then make our best guess as to:
- Which direction the trader thinks the stock is headed
- How much they think it will rise (or fall), and
- In what time frame this will all happen.
If we like what we see after putting all these pieces together, we can mimic the “smart money” trade (on a smaller scale), and potentially ride alongside our pro trader to profits. With all this in mind…
A Pro Trader Just Bet $2,535,000 that XOP Will Continue to Climb in the Next 4 Months
Just yesterday, a pro trader seems to have bought 3,000 of the January 21, 2022, $100 call options on XOP for $8.45 per share. Her outlay was $2,535,000.
XOP – Option Trade
The trade’s breakeven point is at $108.45, meaning that XOP needs to rise to $108.45 for the call option trade to break even. This is a nearly 10% return from the stock’s previous close of $98.68. And then for every $1 the stock rises above $108.45, our “smart money” trader will make $300,000!
On analyzing the weekly chart of XOP, the stock seems to have broken out of a prevailing downtrend (marked as blue color dotted line). It is currently forming a bullish pattern of Ascending Triangle pattern (marked as purple color lines) and looks poised for a breakout. The stock is trading above a gap support area, at around $90 (marked as a brown color dotted line), which would now act as a support area for the stock. The price is also above its 50-week and 200-week SMA. All this makes it likely our pro trader is bullish on XOP.
XOP – Weekly Chart
This lends credence to our conclusion that the pro bought these call options, as opposed to selling them.
If you agree and would like to mimic this trade, here’s how:
Buy to open the January 21, 2022, $100 call options on XOP for $8.45 or better.
As always, depending on your risk appetite, do remember to set a stop-loss for the options trade to avoid significant losses.
Happy Trading!
— Trades of The Day Research Team
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