This Trade Targets a 100% Return in About Five Weeks

Investors had their fears removed rather abruptly on Wednesday after news from Iraq that the damage from Iranian missiles was minimal. President Trump addressed the country in the morning and that seemed to give stocks a boost as well.

All four of the main indices moved higher on the day with the Nasdaq turning in the best performance with a gain of 0.67%. The Dow moved up 0.56% and the S&P tacked on 0.49%. The Russell lagged the others but still managed to gain 0.32%.

Eight of the 10 sectors moved higher on Wednesday with the tech sector leading the way with a gain of 1.07%.

The communication services sector turned in the second best performance with a gain of 0.71%.

After jumping over the last week or so, oil prices retreated as the threat to oil supply disruption seemed to diminish.

This caused the energy sector to fall 1.65% and that was by far the worst performance of the bunch.

The utilities sector fell 0.05% and was the only other sector to finish in the red.

My scans turned in yet another negative result and that stretched the streak to 17 straight days. There were 43 names on the bearish list and 18 on the bullish list.

The barometer fell from -16.7 to -21.3 once these results were added in to the equation.

Once again we had more options on the bearish side of the board to work with and once again we have a bearish trade idea. This time it is on Wayfair (NYSE: W). The company scores a 5 on the EPS rating scale and a D on the SMR rating system.

The stock has been moving lower over the past six months or so and it is right at the upper rail of the channel at this time. The stochastic readings are overbought and made a bearish crossover last night and the 10-day RSI is close to overbought territory as well. When the stock has hit the levels that created the upper rail and the oscillators have been in overbought territory, the stock has fallen sharply in short periods.

Buy to open the February Week 2 97-strike puts on W at $7.00 or better. These options expire on February 14. In order for these options to double the stock will need to drop to $83.oo. The stock was lower than the target level in early December and it only needs to drop 14.7% to reach our target. The previous instances when the above criteria were met, the stock fell at least 15% or more within a month. I suggest a target gain of 100% with a stop at $98.00.

— Rick Pendergraft

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Rick Pendergraft, Trades Of The Day

Rick Pendergraft has been studying, trading, analyzing and writing about the investment markets for over 30 years. He has worked for some of the largest financial publishers in the world and he has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times and the Washington Post. In addition, he has been interviewed on Bloomberg, CNBC and Fox Business News. Rick's analysis process includes fundamental, sentiment and technical analysis.