As hard as it is to believe, Labor Day’s right around the corner.
But while everyone’s planning their unofficial “end-of-summer” barbeques and beach parties…
I’m watching something else.
It’s happened in eight of the last 10 years in the weeks leading up to and shortly after the holiday.
It’s got the power to put triple-digit gains in your pocket – in less than two weeks.
And there’s two unique ways to play it – before time runs out…
Fatten Your Pockets Trading Currencies Before and After Labor Day
The CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) tracks the Eurodollar versus the U.S. dollar. While many people try to fundamentally predict where these two currencies will trade at any given time using global economics, I prefer to spot those historically high-probability, short-term moves of an asset.
And over the last 10 years, FXE has dropped around 80% of the time during the month before and risen 80% of the time the month after Labor Day.
Now I realize this may seem like a bold statement to make. So let me show you the best way I know how… with quantitative data:
In the table above, you can see where I’ve used my proprietary tools to scan and back test the past decade on FXE to see how this asset’s moved in the 30 days before Labor Day. Now as a pattern trader, I like to see “bunching,” meaning I want to see a move in the same direction over a variety of days.
Now based on the data above, we can see a bearish movement in this ETF lasting anywhere from six to 26 days…
…which tells us that the topline best pattern to play is a bearish one on FXE during the 25 days leading up to Labor Day. Historically, doing so resulted in a .91% average drop in the price of the ETF, which is a great for profits in a bearish position.
So what does the data say about trading FXE after Labor Day?
Quite the opposite:
Once again, there are high-probability moves on this ETF – but to the upside this time.
In fact, there’s been a move to the upside between 70% and 80% of the time in the last 10 ranging from 14 to 24 days after Labor Day. This data tells us that the best pattern to play over those 24 days after Labor Day is a bullish one. On average, this has resulted in an average return of .93% (including the losing years).
Now these moves might not sound like much, but keep in mind that the average moves in the currency markets are quite small compared to your average stock. So even though the profits are less than those of stocks, the risks are, too.
That’s why trading call options to the upside and put options to the downside will maximize your profit potential and minimize your risk.
So here’s to the upcoming holiday!
Source: Power Profit Trades